EURUSD - Wave (c) Confirmed After Breaking 1.141, a 13-Month DXY High and PMI Beat Push Euro Toward the 1.119 Projection
EURUSD - Wave (c) Confirmed After Breaking 1.141, a 13-Month DXY High and PMI Beat Push Euro Toward the 1.119 Projection
Reference data | as of 24/06/2026, 12:54 GMT+7
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1370 | TradingView live |
| DXY | 101.476 | sidebar live, 13-month high |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.490% | sidebar live |
| DE 10Y Yield | 2.920% | sidebar live |
| DE-US Spread (corrected) | -1.570% | DE10Y minus US10Y |
| Real Yield US (corrected) | 0.290% | US10Y minus actual CPI 4.2% |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.00% | neutral hold |
| US PMI Mfg (Flash, Jun) | 55.7 | vs 54.7 expected, beat |
| VIX | 19.40 | sidebar live |
Data quality warning. Pipeline CPI US 2.4% stale; actual 4.2%, real yield 0.290%. Pipeline DE10Y 2.99% stale; actual 2.920% (lower), widening the DE-US spread to -1.570%. Pipeline ECB 2.50% cutting; actual 2.00% neutral hold. Pipeline Fed outdated; FOMC 17/06 held with a projected hike later in 2026.
L0 - Regime Identification
EURUSD enters June 24 in a confirmed and accelerating wave (c) decline. This is no longer waiting. The 1.141 level that last week's analysis set as the bearish confirmation has been broken, and the current price of 1.1370 sits below it. The regime shifts from Medium-High Bear to High Bear.
Three forces have converged since last week. First, the hawkish FOMC is confirmed and continuing to transmit. DXY climbed to 101.476, a 13-month high. Second, US data beat expectations. The Flash Manufacturing PMI for June came in at 55.7 versus the 54.7 forecast, reinforcing the strong-US-economy and hawkish-Fed narrative. Third, risk-off intensified sharply. VIX at 19.40, NAS down 3.1% as chipmakers and tech slumped on rate bets, driving haven flows into the dollar.
On the euro side, the ECB remains neutral at 2.00% with no catalyst. ECB Vice President Vujcic stated they have not discussed the neutral rate, and DE10Y fell to 2.920%, widening the DE-US spread to -1.570%. The regime label is therefore Wave (c) Confirmed, High Bear, with the 1.141 level broken and price heading toward the projection zone.
L1 - Driver Stack
The forces acting on EURUSD lean lower uniformly across the dollar leg, the euro leg, and the technical structure.
The first bearish driver is DXY at a 13-month high. The dollar is at its strongest in over a year, supported by the hawkish dot plot. The euro carries 57.6% of the DXY weight, so every step higher in DXY is direct pressure on EURUSD. The second is US data beating. PMI Manufacturing at 55.7 versus 54.7 expected, Richmond Fed Manufacturing improving. A strong US economy reinforces the case for a rate hike. The third is intense risk-off. VIX at 19.40, NAS down 3.1%, haven flows into the dollar. The fourth is the widening DE-US spread at -1.570%. German yields falling while US yields hold high pulls carry further toward the dollar. The fifth is the confirmed wave (c) structure after breaking 1.141.
On the support side, the only force is the ECB's neutral, slightly hawkish-leaning stance at 2.00%, not cutting further. But Vujcic's "haven't discussed the neutral rate" shows the ECB lacks clear direction, insufficient to create an EUR catalyst.
L2 - Macro Snapshot
The macro frame for EURUSD today is comprehensive USD strength meeting a euro with no catalyst.
On the US side, the FOMC hawkish stance is confirmed and transmitting. DXY at a 13-month high. Data continues to beat: PMI Manufacturing 55.7, Richmond Fed improving. Real yield positive at 0.290%. US M2 Money Supply expanded 1.1% m/m. The picture is a still-strong US economy giving the Fed grounds to hike.
On the euro side, the ECB holds at 2.00% neutral. Vujcic stated they haven't discussed the neutral rate. DE10Y fell to 2.920%, reflecting weak Eurozone growth expectations. The DE-US spread widened to -1.570%, the carry tilting toward the dollar more than last week (-1.51%).
VIX at 19.40, clear risk-off. Stocks falling on rate-hike expectations. In this environment, the haven dollar strengthens and the euro, a relatively more risk-sensitive currency, faces dual pressure.
L3 - HTF Structure (D1 Chart)
The daily chart structure is a confirmed wave (c) with clear internal sub-waves, and it is the primary positioning frame.
The large wave picture holds: the wave (5) top near 1.21, then an ABC correction: wave (a) down near 1.135, wave (b) up near 1.192, and wave (c) now running lower. Price has broken the 1.141 confirmation level from last week.
Within wave (c), the internal impulse sub-waves are clear. Sub-wave 1 down near 1.157. Sub-wave 2 bounced. Sub-wave 3 is running, with the current price of 1.1370 sitting within it. After sub-wave 3, a sub-wave 4 bounce is expected before sub-wave 5 completes wave (c).
Key levels:
- Already broken: 1.141 (last week's confirmation)
- Nearby support: 1.13505
- Sub-wave 5 target: 1.11904 (~1.119)
- Deeper targets: 1.11344 then 1.07975 to 1.07325 (green box)
- Invalidation: daily close above the wave (b) top ~1.192
- Near warning: reclaim above 1.141
L4 - Intermarket Cross-Check
The intermarket complex is uniformly bearish for EURUSD, with no divergence.
DXY at 101.476, a 13-month high. The euro carries 57.6% of the DXY weight, so the inverse correlation is tight. Every step higher in DXY pulls EURUSD lower directly. GBPUSD at 1.3196, AUDUSD at 0.6914, USDCAD at 1.4217, USDJPY at 161.596 all confirm broad dollar strength.
The DE-US spread widened to -1.570% (DE10Y 2.920% versus US10Y 4.490%). The carry tilts toward the dollar more than last week. VIX at 19.40, risk-off, haven flows into the dollar. Silver down 5.4%, commodities weak, reflecting broad risk-off.
No divergence signal suggests EURUSD is about to bounce. Every intermarket channel leans bearish.
L5 - Event Risk
The calendar for EURUSD revolves around the dollar trajectory and data from both sides.
Already occurred: Hawkish FOMC 17/06. US PMI Mfg 55.7 beat. DXY at a 13-month high. ECB Vujcic: haven't discussed neutral rate.
This week: US data continues (consumer confidence, durable goods, GDP revision). Strong data continues to reinforce DXY and press EURUSD. A surprise weak print is the only catalyst for a sub-wave 4 bounce.
Scenario matrix:
| Scenario | Target | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sub-wave 3 continues, then 4 bounce, then sub-5 to 1.119 | 1.119 | 45% |
| Strong US data + risk-off, accelerates through 1.119 to 1.079-1.073 | 1.073 | 25% |
| Surprise weak US data, sub-wave 4 bounces to 1.145-1.150, then resumes | 1.150 then 1.119 | 20% |
| Reclaim above 1.141, tests 1.165, wave count needs reassessment | 1.165 | 10% |
L6 - Conviction Scorecard
| Factor | Bear EURUSD | Bull EURUSD | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY 13-month high | Bearish | -- | High |
| 1.141 broken, wave (c) confirmed | Bearish | -- | High |
| PMI Mfg beat 55.7 | Bearish | -- | High |
| DE-US spread widened -1.570% | Bearish | -- | High |
| Risk-off VIX 19.40, NAS -3.1% | Bearish | -- | Medium |
| Positive real yield 0.290% | Bearish | -- | Medium |
| ECB neutral, Vujcic "haven't discussed" | Bearish (no EUR catalyst) | -- | Medium |
| Sub-wave 3 running, sub-4 bounce pending | Bear momentum | Brief technical bounce | Medium |
Composite conviction: High Bear. Upgraded from Medium-High. The 1.141 confirmation level is broken, wave (c) is running with clear impulse sub-waves. DXY at a 13-month high, PMI beat, DE-US spread widening, intense risk-off, no ECB catalyst. Every channel leans bearish with no divergence. Target sub-wave 5: 1.119. Deeper: 1.079 to 1.073. Invalidation: 1.192.
L7 - Time Horizon
24 to 48 hours: Sub-wave 3 running, strong bear momentum. Nearby support at 1.13505. A sub-wave 4 bounce may intervene but will not reverse.
1 to 2 weeks: Sub-wave 5 targets 1.119, deeper to 1.113. US data this week and the DXY trajectory are catalysts. Range: 1.119 to 1.150 depending on scenario.
1 to 3 months: The wave (c) deep projection toward 1.079 to 1.073 if momentum sustains. The bear thesis holds as long as the DE-US spread stays wide and the Fed stays hawkish. If the Fed turns dovish or the ECB turns distinctly hawkish, the thesis needs reassessment. Invalidation: 1.192.
L8 - Invalidation Conditions
The bearish thesis fails if EURUSD closes on a daily basis above the wave (b) top near 1.192, negating the ABC structure. A nearer warning is a reclaim above 1.141, signaling the breakout has failed and demanding caution.
Wave (c) is confirmed with price below 1.141, which has already occurred. Sub-wave 5 targets 1.119, deeper to 1.079 to 1.073.
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. All levels and scenarios are analytical frameworks based on publicly available data. Past structure does not guarantee future results. Readers are solely responsible for their own trading decisions.
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Intermarket Edge | Published 24/06/2026