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USDJPY - Yen Jumps on Intervention Fears, Last Week's Wave (a) Thesis Toward 158.953 Is Playing Out Exactly as Scripted

USDJPY - Yen Jumps on Intervention Fears, Last Week's Wave (a) Thesis Toward 158.953 Is Playing Out Exactly as Scripted

USDJPY - SUMMARY 10/07/2026 Regime: Yen jumps on MoF intervention fears, directly confirming last week's "ambush tactics" thesis. Medium Bear near-term unchanged, strongly reinforced by today's real news. Bias: Medium Bear near-term. New factors: Japan encouraging pension funds to invest domestically, June CGPI import index +29.7% y/y (seventh straight monthly rise). VIX fell 6.16% intraday, fourth straight day of cooling since the Iran shock. Data corrections: JP10Y 2.78% (not 1.47%); US-JP spread +1.76% (not the pipeline's own 3.069%). D1 structure: wave (5) peak near 163, now in corrective wave (a), broke through 160.450-161.940 (now resistance), testing 161.55-161.58 just below invalidation 161.940. Target: 158.953, 157, 155.207-154.539. Scenarios: continued decline toward 158.953-157 (45%); range pending confirmation (35%); extended decline toward 155.207-154.539 (15%); bounce invalidating the thesis (5%). Close monitoring of official MoF or BoJ statements needed in coming days. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

USDCAD - Wave 4 Recovers From a Deeper-Than-Expected Pullback, Price Retests the 1.4174 Decision Zone Ahead of Wave 5 Toward 1.4447-1.4540

USDCAD - Wave 4 Recovers From a Deeper-Than-Expected Pullback, Price Retests the 1.4174 Decision Zone Ahead of Wave 5 Toward 1.4447-1.4540

USDCAD - SUMMARY 09/07/2026 Regime: Wave 4 completed a deeper-than-expected correction (1.394-1.397 instead of 1.415-1.417), now recovering to retest the 1.415-1.417 pivot from above. Medium-High Bull unchanged. Bias: Medium-High Bull. New factors: sharp two-way oil volatility from Iran (detailed in the USOIL piece), down 2.85% today creating near-term weak-CAD pressure. VIX cooling for 3 straight days (18.4 → 17.47 → 16.45). BoC's Macklem shifted mixed-to-hawkish. Data corrections: US2Y 4.18% (not 3.693%); US CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%). D1 structure: wave (3) peaked ~1.42 on target, wave (4) fell deeper than expected to 1.394-1.397, now recovering to retest the 1.415-1.417 pivot. Wave (5) target: 1.4447 then 1.4540. Invalidation below 1.400. Scenarios: holds and continues toward 1.4447-1.4540 (40%); range 1.400-1.420 pending confirmation (40%); break below 1.400 invalidating the thesis (20%). No confirmed date/time yet for the FOMC minutes despite newsflow noting market attention. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

USOIL - Last Week's Bearish Thesis Invalidated as Price Clears 73.35, Iran War Escalation Reverses the Entire Oil-Glut Narrative

USOIL - Last Week's Bearish Thesis Invalidated as Price Clears 73.35, Iran War Escalation Reverses the Entire Oil-Glut Narrative

USOIL - SUMMARY 09/07/2026 Regime: Last week's High Bear thesis invalidated as price cleared the 73.35 invalidation level, due to Iran war escalation rather than analytical error. Shifted to Medium Bull (risk premium), moderate conviction. Bias: Medium Bull (risk premium), shifted from High Bear last week. New factors: US revoked Iran's oil sale authorization, struck 80+ targets, Iran retaliated against Bahrain and Kuwait, price surged as much as 7% in a session. Simultaneously, EIA reported a surprise inventory build of 2.998M, breaking an 8-week streak of draws -- a bearish fundamental signal being overwhelmed by risk premium. Key precedent: the Iran war's outbreak in February pushed Brent up 65% before fully reversing over 4 months. Caution warranted given this precedent could repeat. D1 structure: support 69-70, medium-term resistance 87.5-92.5. Upside target: 108-112. Downside target: 63.57-57.60. Scenarios: continued escalation toward 87.5-112 (35%); range 70-85 pending developments (40%); cooling as in the precedent, resuming the downtrend (25%). This is the hardest-to-forecast variable in the current 9-instrument basket; continuous monitoring of geopolitical developments is required. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

EURUSD - Price Sits Right Beside the 1.138 Trigger as Iran Geopolitical Risk Keeps VIX Elevated, 1.119-1.120 Target Awaits Confirmation

EURUSD - Price Sits Right Beside the 1.138 Trigger as Iran Geopolitical Risk Keeps VIX Elevated, 1.119-1.120 Target Awaits Confirmation

EURUSD - SUMMARY 08/07/2026 Regime: Price sits right at last week's identified 1.138 trigger, High Bear unchanged. Four aligned forces: DE-US spread -1.51%, Fed hawkish post-Warsh FOMC, ECB merely neutral, Iran geopolitical risk pushing VIX to 17.47 and oil sharply higher. Bias: High Bear, one of the highest-conviction theses in the 9-instrument basket. New factor: US-Iran geopolitical risk (full detail in the same-day EURJPY piece) adding energy-cost pressure on Europe. Data corrections: DE10Y 3.05%, DE-US spread -1.51% (not the pipeline's own -1.571%); US CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%). D1 structure: wave (c) in its final wave 5, declining from the wave 4 consolidation (1.155-1.160) to test the Battle Zone 1.138-1.155. A close below 1.138 confirms the move toward 1.119-1.120. Invalidation above 1.157. Scenarios: close below 1.138 toward 1.119-1.120 (45%); range 1.138-1.155 pending confirmation (35%); bounce testing 1.157-1.160 (15%); decisive break above 1.157 invalidating the thesis (5%). Close monitoring needed over the next 24-48 hours given unresolved geopolitical risk. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

EURJPY - US Strikes Iran, VIX Jumps 14%, Head and Shoulders Retests the Right Shoulder Right as Geopolitical Risk Escalates

EURJPY - US Strikes Iran, VIX Jumps 14%, Head and Shoulders Retests the Right Shoulder Right as Geopolitical Risk Escalates

EURJPY - SUMMARY 08/07/2026 Regime: US struck 80+ targets in Iran, reimposed oil sanctions, Iran retaliated against Kuwait and Bahrain. VIX spiked 14.25%, oil rose over 3.7%. High Bear, unchanged from last week, potentially reinforced by risk-off. Bias: High Bear. New factors: recalculated DE-JP spread narrowed to just +0.18%, nearly collapsed. Escalating US-Iran geopolitical risk, ceasefire highly fragile. Data corrections: JP10Y 2.87% (not 1.47%); BoJ already hiked to 1.00% hawkish (not "gradual hike path"); ECB neutral hold 2.00% (not cutting cycle). D1 structure: confirmed head and shoulders, left shoulder 186.5-187, head 187.936-188.012, right shoulder 186.048-187.936, neckline 181.018-181.985. Price at 185.279 testing the right shoulder. Target: 177 then 171.047. Invalidation above 186.547. Scenarios: neckline break toward 177-171 if escalation continues (45%); range 181-186.5 pending developments (35%); bounce, break above 186.547 invalidating the pattern (20%). Close monitoring needed over the next 24-48 hours to confirm price reaction to geopolitical developments. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

EURGBP - The -1.84% DE-GB Spread Remains the Main Drag, Price Tests a Wave (4) Zone Near 0.8544 Ahead of 0.841-0.846

EURGBP - The -1.84% DE-GB Spread Remains the Main Drag, Price Tests a Wave (4) Zone Near 0.8544 Ahead of 0.841-0.846

EURGBP - SUMMARY 07/07/2026 Regime: The -1.84% DE-GB spread unchanged from last week, still the main drag. Medium Bear (carry). Price tests a local low zone (wave 4) near 0.8540-0.8556 after a long decline from the 0.888 peak. Bias: Medium Bear (carry), unchanged from last week. New factors: sterling posted its best weekly gain in 12 weeks vs the dollar, reportedly easing political risk (details unconfirmed), reinforcing sterling's relative strength vs the euro. ECB's Wunsch made a more hawkish remark than expected but it's individual, not policy. Data corrections: DE10Y 2.96% (not 2.99%); UK10Y 4.80% (not 4.50%); ECB neutral hold 2.00% (not cutting cycle 2.50%). D1 structure: large peak at 0.888, decline breaking 0.874, 0.870, 0.8611, now testing wave (4) at 0.8540-0.8556. Target: 0.841-0.846. Invalidation above 0.870. Scenarios: continued decline toward 0.841-0.846 (45%); range 0.850-0.861 pending confirmation (35%); bounce above 0.861 testing 0.870 (15%); decisive break above 0.870 invalidating thesis (5%). For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

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