XAUUSD - Wave (4) Running After the 5,100 Peak Confirmed, 4,296 Broken and Price Seeking Its Floor at 3,797-3,881
XAUUSD - Wave (4) Running After the 5,100 Peak Confirmed, 4,296 Broken and Price Seeking Its Floor at 3,797-3,881
Reference data | as of 29/06/2026, 21:30 GMT+7
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | 4,023.995 | TradingView live (-1.57%) |
| DXY | 100.8 | sidebar live |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.372% | sidebar live |
| US 2Y Yield | 4.10% | sidebar live |
| US Real Yield (corrected) | +0.172% | US10Y minus CPI 4.2% |
| JP 10Y Yield | 2.63% | sidebar live |
| DE 10Y Yield | 2.85% | sidebar live |
| GB 10Y Yield | 4.72% | sidebar live |
| US CPI YoY (actual) | 4.2% | BLS May 2026 |
| Fed policy rate | 4.25-4.50% | Hold + hawkish bias Warsh |
| VIX | 18.7 | sidebar live |
| SPX | 7,390 | +49.6 (+0.68%) |
| NAS100 | 29,256 | +207 (+0.71%) |
| USOIL | 70.4 | sidebar live |
| BRENT | 74.4 | sidebar live |
Data quality warning. Pipeline CPI 2.4% stale; actual 4.2% (BLS May 2026). Pipeline real yield 1.972% wrong; actual +0.172% (using CPI 4.2%). Pipeline JP10Y 1.47% stale; actual 2.63% (sidebar live). Pipeline DE10Y 2.99% wrong; actual 2.85%. Pipeline GB10Y 4.50% stale; actual 4.72% (sidebar live). Pipeline ECB "cutting 2.50%" wrong; actual neutral hold 2.00%. Pipeline Fed "~40% hike odds Apr 2027" outdated; actual Hold + hawkish bias post-FOMC 17 June Warsh.
L0 - Regime Identification
XAUUSD enters the evening session of 29 June at 4,023.995 -- down 1.57% on the day -- having broken through the critical 4,296-4,381 support zone during the week. Following the completion of wave 3 at approximately 5,100 in April 2026, gold is executing wave (4) correction with sustained selling pressure.
The 4,296-4,381 support zone has been decisively broken -- confirmation that wave (4) is actively seeking a lower base. The Elliott structural target for wave (4) sits at 3,797-3,881 (Fibonacci 0.382 of the full advance from the major low).
Regime: Medium Bear, wave (4) in progress. This is not the moment to buy blindly -- wait for wave (4) termination signals at 3,797-3,881 before considering positioning.
L1 - Driver Stack
The first bearish driver is the positive real rate environment: with US CPI actual at 4.2% and US10Y at 4.372%, the true real yield is +0.172% -- positive real rates create opportunity cost for holding zero-yield gold. The second is the Fed hawkish stance under Warsh: "higher for longer" posture post-17 June FOMC, with an H2 2026 hike not excluded. When markets price rising hike probability, gold faces the double headwind of a stronger DXY and higher real rates. The third is recovering risk appetite: SPX +0.68%, NAS100 +0.71%, VIX at 18.7 -- risk-on reduces safe-haven demand for gold. The fourth is the broken technical structure: the 4,296 floor has failed, removing the intermediate support that was absorbing selling pressure.
Support factors: Iran-US peace talks Round 3 still ongoing -- a breakdown in negotiations could generate a geopolitical spike bounce. RSI D1 approaching oversold near 34 -- a technical bounce toward 4,100-4,200 is possible but does not alter the wave (4) structure.
L2 - Macro Snapshot
Gold is governed by four primary macro variables: real rates, DXY, risk appetite, and geopolitical risk premium.
US real yield corrected: the pipeline figure of 1.972% is materially wrong because it uses the stale 2.4% CPI. Actual: US10Y 4.372% minus CPI 4.2% equals +0.172%. Positive but not as restrictive as pipeline suggests. This is a headwind for gold -- positive real yields mean holding Treasuries earns a positive real return, competing with zero-yield gold. Historically, each 25bps increase in real yields correlates with a 3-5% decline in gold.
DXY at 100.8, having pulled back from the 104.2 peak but maintaining a bullish medium-term structure (wave (5) targeting 103-104.5). When DXY initiates wave (5), it adds another layer of pressure on dollar-denominated gold.
Risk appetite: SPX 7,390 (+49.6), NAS100 +207. Risk-on reduces safe-haven demand. The gold-risk-off correlation is active: as equities recover, gold faces pressure.
XAGUSD at 58.1 (-1.68%). Silver declining more sharply than gold -- silver typically amplifies gold trends. Silver underperforming gold is additional confirmation of wave (4) bearish momentum.
Oil: USOIL 70.4, Brent 74.4 -- a modest bounce back above 70. Higher oil supports gold via the inflation hedge channel, but this effect is weak relative to the headwind from positive real rates and a hawkish Fed.
Geopolitical: Iran-US peace talks Round 3. Progress on a deal deflates the war risk premium further, bearish for gold in the near term. A breakdown or escalation generates a spike. Non-linear and unpredictable, not a structural driver.
L3 - HTF Structure (D1 Chart)
From the major low in 2024 (approximately 1,800-2,000), gold constructed a large-scale impulse:
Wave 1: strong advance to approximately 2,800-3,000. Wave 2: minor correction. Wave 3: the largest impulse from ~3,000 to the peak at approximately 5,100 (April 2026) -- driven by: Iran-US war premium, Fed rate cut expectations then hawkish reversal, institutional inflows into gold as inflation hedge. Wave (4): in progress -- correction from 5,100.
Key levels:
- Wave 3 peak: ~5,100 (confirmed)
- Red resistance zone: 4,963-5,042
- Green zone above (now broken): 4,296-4,381 -- flipped from support to resistance
- Current price: 4,023.995
- Wave (4) target -- lower green box: 3,797-3,881 (Fib 0.382 of the full advance)
- Wave (4) extended: 3,500-3,600 (Fib 0.5)
- Hard invalidation: below 2,997
- Post-wave (4): wave (5) targets new highs above 5,100
Technical conditions: the "Watch for Price Rejection or Breakout" zone has been broken to the downside. No remaining intermediate floor before the 3,797-3,881 target. RSI D1 ~34 -- approaching oversold but not yet extreme.
Near-term (1-2 weeks): a technical bounce toward 4,100-4,200 (former support, now resistance) is possible given RSI proximity to oversold. However, if 4,296 cannot be reclaimed, the bias remains that wave (4) continues to its 3,797-3,881 target.
L4 - Intermarket Cross-Check
Gold-DXY: DXY at 100.8, pulled back from 104.2 peak but medium-term bullish structure intact (wave (5) targeting 103-104.5). When DXY initiates wave (5), gold faces additional pressure via the inverse relationship.
Gold-real yield: actual +0.172% (pipeline 1.972% wrong). Positive real yield is a structural headwind. If the Fed hikes in H2 2026, real yields rise further, increasing gold's opportunity cost.
Gold-risk: SPX and NAS100 both up today, VIX at 18.7 (no longer elevated as it was at 20.2 last week). Risk-on reduces safe-haven demand.
XAGUSD 58.1 (-1.68%): silver declining more than gold confirms the bearish wave (4) momentum is not a one-day event.
Oil: USOIL 70.4, Brent 74.4, modestly higher. Oil recovery provides mild inflation-hedge support for gold but is overwhelmed by the real rate and DXY headwinds.
L5 - Event Risk
Ahead this week:
30 June -- Chicago PMI: a beat strengthens the Fed hawkish narrative, adding bearish pressure on gold. A miss creates a temporary bounce.
1 July -- ADP Non-Farm: a strong print means higher Fed hike odds, bearish gold. Weak print = temporary technical relief.
3 July -- Official NFP: the dominant catalyst. A print above 220K with rising wages = peak bearish pressure on gold as Fed hike probability rises sharply. A miss = short-term relief bounce without altering the wave (4) structural trajectory.
Geopolitical: Iran-US peace talks -- unpredictable. Talks breakdown = gold spike of 100-200 USD within hours. Deal signed = further war premium deflation.
Do not buy the dip before NFP. Wave (4) is not complete.
| Scenario | Target | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wave (4) continues to 3,797-3,881 | 3,797-3,881 | 55% |
| Technical bounce to 4,100-4,200 then resumes lower | 3,797-3,881 | 25% |
| NFP miss + geopolitical spike, reclaims 4,296 | 4,296+ | 15% |
| Wave (4) extended, tests 3,500-3,600 (Fib 0.5) | 3,500-3,600 | 5% |
L6 - Conviction Scorecard
| Factor | Bear XAUUSD (wave 4) | Bull XAUUSD | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4,296-4,381 zone broken, flipped to resistance | Bearish | -- | High |
| Actual real yield +0.172% (positive) | Bearish | -- | High |
| Fed Warsh hawkish, H2 2026 hike possible | Bearish | -- | High |
| DXY medium-term bullish (wave 5 to 103-104) | Bearish | -- | Medium |
| Risk-on: SPX +0.68%, VIX 18.7 | Bearish | -- | Medium |
| XAGUSD -1.68% amplifying the bearish trend | Bearish | -- | Medium |
| RSI D1 ~34 approaching oversold | -- | Technical bounce | Low |
| Iran-US talks could break down | -- | Geopolitical spike | Low |
| Oil bounce (mild inflation hedge support) | -- | Weak support | Low |
Conviction: Medium Bear, wave (4) in progress. The 4,296 break confirms no intermediate floor remains before 3,797-3,881. Positive real rates, a hawkish Fed, a structurally bullish DXY, and risk-on equities -- four forces aligned bearish. RSI proximity to oversold may generate a technical bounce to 4,100-4,200 but does not alter the structural wave (4) trajectory. Invalidation: decisive daily close above 4,296.
L7 - Time Horizon
24-48h: Gold ranging 3,950-4,150. NFP data in early July is the dominant variable. RSI near oversold can generate a short-term bounce. New resistance: 4,100-4,200 (former support).
1-2 weeks: NFP 3 July decides the speed. Strong print: accelerates toward 3,881 then 3,797. Weak print: bounce toward 4,200 then resumes lower. Monitoring range: 3,797-4,200.
1-3 months: Once wave (4) completes at 3,797-3,881, wave (5) initiates toward new highs above 5,100. The wave (4) completion zone is a structural long-term accumulation opportunity -- but patience is required, waiting for confirmed reversal signals before acting. Extended wave (4): 3,500-3,600 (Fib 0.5). Hard invalidation: below 2,997.
L8 - Invalidation Conditions
Wave (4) bearish thesis fails if XAUUSD reclaims 4,296 on a decisive daily close -- at that point, wave (4) may have completed earlier than the Fibonacci targets suggested.
Wave (4) confirmed continuing if XAUUSD breaks below 3,950 on high volume -- acceleration toward 3,881 then 3,797 becomes the operative scenario.
Full wave count invalidated if price drops below 2,997 -- requires structural reassessment from the ground up.
The most important instruction: do not attempt to bottom-pick at 4,024 without a confirmed wave (4) base signal. Wait for the 3,797-3,881 zone to be tested, then look for a reversal confirmation -- hammer, morning star, or bullish RSI divergence on D1 -- before considering long positioning for wave (5).
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are solely responsible for their own trading decisions.
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Intermarket Edge | Published 29/06/2026