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EURUSD - Price Sits Right Beside the 1.138 Trigger as Iran Geopolitical Risk Keeps VIX Elevated, 1.119-1.120 Target Awaits Confirmation

EURUSD - Price Sits Right Beside the 1.138 Trigger as Iran Geopolitical Risk Keeps VIX Elevated, 1.119-1.120 Target Awaits Confirmation

EURUSD - SUMMARY 08/07/2026 Regime: Price sits right at last week's identified 1.138 trigger, High Bear unchanged. Four aligned forces: DE-US spread -1.51%, Fed hawkish post-Warsh FOMC, ECB merely neutral, Iran geopolitical risk pushing VIX to 17.47 and oil sharply higher. Bias: High Bear, one of the highest-conviction theses in the 9-instrument basket. New factor: US-Iran geopolitical risk (full detail in the same-day EURJPY piece) adding energy-cost pressure on Europe. Data corrections: DE10Y 3.05%, DE-US spread -1.51% (not the pipeline's own -1.571%); US CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%). D1 structure: wave (c) in its final wave 5, declining from the wave 4 consolidation (1.155-1.160) to test the Battle Zone 1.138-1.155. A close below 1.138 confirms the move toward 1.119-1.120. Invalidation above 1.157. Scenarios: close below 1.138 toward 1.119-1.120 (45%); range 1.138-1.155 pending confirmation (35%); bounce testing 1.157-1.160 (15%); decisive break above 1.157 invalidating the thesis (5%). Close monitoring needed over the next 24-48 hours given unresolved geopolitical risk. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

EURJPY - US Strikes Iran, VIX Jumps 14%, Head and Shoulders Retests the Right Shoulder Right as Geopolitical Risk Escalates

EURJPY - US Strikes Iran, VIX Jumps 14%, Head and Shoulders Retests the Right Shoulder Right as Geopolitical Risk Escalates

EURJPY - SUMMARY 08/07/2026 Regime: US struck 80+ targets in Iran, reimposed oil sanctions, Iran retaliated against Kuwait and Bahrain. VIX spiked 14.25%, oil rose over 3.7%. High Bear, unchanged from last week, potentially reinforced by risk-off. Bias: High Bear. New factors: recalculated DE-JP spread narrowed to just +0.18%, nearly collapsed. Escalating US-Iran geopolitical risk, ceasefire highly fragile. Data corrections: JP10Y 2.87% (not 1.47%); BoJ already hiked to 1.00% hawkish (not "gradual hike path"); ECB neutral hold 2.00% (not cutting cycle). D1 structure: confirmed head and shoulders, left shoulder 186.5-187, head 187.936-188.012, right shoulder 186.048-187.936, neckline 181.018-181.985. Price at 185.279 testing the right shoulder. Target: 177 then 171.047. Invalidation above 186.547. Scenarios: neckline break toward 177-171 if escalation continues (45%); range 181-186.5 pending developments (35%); bounce, break above 186.547 invalidating the pattern (20%). Close monitoring needed over the next 24-48 hours to confirm price reaction to geopolitical developments. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

EURGBP - The -1.84% DE-GB Spread Remains the Main Drag, Price Tests a Wave (4) Zone Near 0.8544 Ahead of 0.841-0.846

EURGBP - The -1.84% DE-GB Spread Remains the Main Drag, Price Tests a Wave (4) Zone Near 0.8544 Ahead of 0.841-0.846

EURGBP - SUMMARY 07/07/2026 Regime: The -1.84% DE-GB spread unchanged from last week, still the main drag. Medium Bear (carry). Price tests a local low zone (wave 4) near 0.8540-0.8556 after a long decline from the 0.888 peak. Bias: Medium Bear (carry), unchanged from last week. New factors: sterling posted its best weekly gain in 12 weeks vs the dollar, reportedly easing political risk (details unconfirmed), reinforcing sterling's relative strength vs the euro. ECB's Wunsch made a more hawkish remark than expected but it's individual, not policy. Data corrections: DE10Y 2.96% (not 2.99%); UK10Y 4.80% (not 4.50%); ECB neutral hold 2.00% (not cutting cycle 2.50%). D1 structure: large peak at 0.888, decline breaking 0.874, 0.870, 0.8611, now testing wave (4) at 0.8540-0.8556. Target: 0.841-0.846. Invalidation above 0.870. Scenarios: continued decline toward 0.841-0.846 (45%); range 0.850-0.861 pending confirmation (35%); bounce above 0.861 testing 0.870 (15%); decisive break above 0.870 invalidating thesis (5%). For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

GBPUSD - Best Bounce in 12 Weeks Stalls Right at 1.339-1.346 Resistance, Medium-Term Wave (c) Decline Remains Intact

GBPUSD - Best Bounce in 12 Weeks Stalls Right at 1.339-1.346 Resistance, Medium-Term Wave (c) Decline Remains Intact

GBPUSD - SUMMARY 07/07/2026 Regime: Best 12-week bounce stalls right at 1.339-1.346 resistance, Medium Bear medium-term (trimmed from Medium-High Bear last week). Weaker dollar and reportedly easing UK political risk (details unconfirmed) pushed price to a three-week high, but the seven-session rally was halted right at resistance. Bias: Medium Bear medium-term. New factors: corrected UK-US 10Y spread at +0.31% favoring the pound (pipeline showed only 0.021%). BoE's Mann hawkish, watching 2027 wage negotiations. DXY fell from 101.112 to 100.911. Data corrections: UK10Y 4.81% (not 4.50%); UK-US spread +0.31% (not 0.021%); US CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%). D1 structure: wave (c) declining from the (b) peak at 1.380, tested 1.315 then bounced harder than expected, now testing 1.339-1.346 resistance. Break above opens 1.360-1.365. Break below 1.310 risks the (a) low zone at 1.300-1.308. Scenarios: break above resistance to 1.360-1.365 (30%); range pending confirmation (40%); rejected, turning to 1.310-1.315 (20%); break below 1.310 continuing lower (10%). Not fully certain about the specific details behind the easing UK political risk; monitor further. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

EURJPY - Head & Shoulders Confirmed, DE-JP Spread Collapses to 0.25%, Neckline 181 Is the Trigger for Targets at 177 and 171

EURJPY - Head & Shoulders Confirmed, DE-JP Spread Collapses to 0.25%, Neckline 181 Is the Trigger for Targets at 177 and 171

EURJPY - SUMMARY 01/07/2026 Regime: H&S Confirmed, High Bear. EURJPY 185.058 (-0.35%), Right Shoulder 186.547 rejected, price declining toward neckline 181.018-181.047. Bias: High Bear. Most critical correction: actual DE-JP spread +0.25% (not pipeline's 1.52%). JP10Y 2.70% (not 1.47%), DE10Y 2.95% (not 2.99%). BoJ already hiked to 1.00% (not "Hold"). ECB neutral hold 2.00% (not cutting 2.50%). EUR/JPY carry trade has economically collapsed. Three high-conviction factors: carry collapsed to +0.25%, H&S complete (Head 188.012 / Right Shoulder 186.547 / Neckline 181.018), BoJ hawkish + June TANKAN support today. H&S measured target: neckline 181 → 177 (also Fib 1.618 extension -- confluence). Further support: 175.0-175.5. Invalidation: daily close above 186.547. Scenarios: neckline 181 breaks, wave (c) to 177 (55%); sideways 183-186 (25%); NFP bounce 186-187 then continues (15%); recovery above 186.547 (5%). Do not chase short before neckline 181 breaks. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

EURUSD - The 1.140 Zone Is the Decision Point: Rejection Confirms Wave (c) to 1.119, Breakout Challenges the Entire Bearish Structure

EURUSD - The 1.140 Zone Is the Decision Point: Rejection Confirms Wave (c) to 1.119, Breakout Challenges the Entire Bearish Structure

EURUSD - SUMMARY 01/07/2026 Regime: Wave (c) Running, High Bear, Awaiting Confirmation. EURUSD 1.1403 (-0.16%), testing the "Wait for Price Rejection or Breakout" decision zone at 1.138-1.155 on D1. Bias: High Bear -- highest conviction in the 9-instrument pipeline this week. Four high-conviction bearish forces: DE-US spread -1.54% (DE10Y 2.92% vs US10Y 4.46%, carry entirely against EUR), Fed Warsh hawkish + Hammack today "may need higher rates," wave (c) RSI downtrend D1, ECB neutral hold 2.00% (no further dovish room). Data corrections: US CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%); real yield +0.26% (not 2.018%); US2Y 4.17% (not 3.732%); ECB neutral 2.00% (not cutting 2.50%); DE10Y 2.92% (not 2.99%); DE-US spread -1.54% (not -1.428%). D1 structure: wave 5 peak ~1.195 → wave (a) ~1.137 → wave (b) ~1.184 → wave (c) running. Sub-wave 5/(c) inside "Battle Zone" 1.138-1.155. Target: 1.119-1.120. Scenarios: rejection confirmed, wave (c) to 1.119-1.120 (60%); sideways 1.135-1.155 ahead of NFP (20%); NFP miss, bounce 1.157-1.165 (15%); breakout above 1.165 (5%). Trigger: daily close below 1.138 = bearish confirmed. Invalidation: daily close above 1.157. NFP 3 July is the dominant catalyst. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

EURGBP - Negative 1.84% Carry Weighs as Wave (c) Targets 0.844, but UK Political Instability Is Testing the Entire Thesis

EURGBP - Negative 1.84% Carry Weighs as Wave (c) Targets 0.844, but UK Political Instability Is Testing the Entire Thesis

EURGBP - SUMMARY 30/06/2026 Regime: Wave (c) Running Within Downtrend Channel, Medium Bear. EURGBP 0.8622 (+0.08%), within a downtrend channel after wave (b) completed at the ~0.876 peak (coinciding with Lagarde's hawkish Sintra remarks). Wave (c) projects toward 0.844-0.846. Bias: Medium Bear medium term (not High) given UK political risk is a wildcard. Primary driver: DE-GB 10Y carry spread of -1.84% (GB10Y 4.74% vs DE10Y 2.90%) -- one of the clearest differentials in G7, entirely tilted toward GBP. ECB has reached neutral hold at 2.00% (pipeline wrongly reports "cutting 2.50%") -- the most important correction this week, removing a dovish EUR catalyst. But unresolved UK political instability post-Starmer resignation 22 June is an asymmetric risk that could reverse the thesis. Data corrections: ECB neutral 2.00% (not cutting 2.50%); UK10Y 4.74% (not 4.50%); DE10Y 2.90% (not 2.99%). D1 structure: downtrend channel from (b) peak ~0.876. Channel resistance: 0.868-0.870. Support: 0.8611. Wave (c) target: 0.844-0.846. Scenarios: wave (c) continues to 0.844-0.846 (45%); bounce within channel 0.860-0.870 (30%); UK political escalation, channel breaks higher (20%); ECB more hawkish, accelerates (5%). Do not blindly chase shorts on carry alone. Closely monitor UK political news before committing to large positions. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

GBPUSD - Technical Bounce After a Sharp Sell-off, but Structure Still Tilts Lower as UK Political Instability Meets Fed Hawkishness

GBPUSD - Technical Bounce After a Sharp Sell-off, but Structure Still Tilts Lower as UK Political Instability Meets Fed Hawkishness

GBPUSD - SUMMARY 30/06/2026 Regime: Technical Bounce, Medium-High Bear Medium Term. GBPUSD 1.3229 (+0.34%), bouncing from the 1.3150-1.3208 support zone after a sharp decline from the wave 3/(b) peak near 1.370. This is a technical reaction at support, not yet a reversal. Bias: Medium-High Bear medium term, neutral within near-term bounce. Two dominant forces: UK political instability post-Starmer resignation 22 June (unresolved), Fed Warsh hawkishness strengthening USD broadly (CPI 4.2%, real yield +0.174%). Actual GB-US 10Y spread of +0.346% (pipeline wrongly reports 0.126%) gives GBP a larger carry advantage than reported, but entirely overwhelmed by political risk premium. Data corrections: US CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%); UK10Y 4.72% (not 4.50%); GB-US spread +0.346% (not 0.126%). D1 structure: converging pattern following the decline from 1.370. Resistance: 1.335-1.340. Support: 1.3150-1.3208 (already bounced). Two-way breakout: above 1.345 or below 1.310-1.315. Scenarios: bounce fails, resumes to 1.300-1.310 (50%); sideways awaiting catalyst (30%); breakout above 1.345 (15%); sharp breakdown below 1.300 (5%). Event risk: UK GDP + Chicago PMI today, NFP 3 July is the dominant weekly catalyst. Do not chase the bounce before the converging pattern breaks clearly. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

EURJPY - Head and Shoulders Confirmed, the DE-JP Carry Collapses to 0.21% as Hawkish BoJ Meets Neutral ECB, Target Neckline 181 Then 171

EURJPY - Head and Shoulders Confirmed, the DE-JP Carry Collapses to 0.21% as Hawkish BoJ Meets Neutral ECB, Target Neckline 181 Then 171

EURJPY 183.465 | H&S confirmed, carry collapses to 0.21% | 24 June 2026 Last week: "RS forming 185.5-186.5." This week: RS completed at 186.547, price left the RS, wave (c) running. H&S confirmed. But the bigger story is the carry. The pipeline shows DE-JP spread at about 1.52%. Entirely wrong. Actual: JP10Y jumped to 2.660% after the BoJ hike, DE10Y fell to 2.870%. The real spread is just +0.210%, near zero. This is the largest correction of all nine instruments this week. When carry vanishes, the top pattern forms naturally. The H&S is the structural consequence. Tokyo CPI June forecast to accelerate on commodity prices -- giving the BoJ grounds to hike further. Markets watching for follow-up. ECB 2.00% neutral, no EUR catalyst. D1 structure: LS ~185.5, Head 188.012, RS 186.547 (completed). Neckline 181. Price 183.465 between RS and neckline. Targets: break neckline 181, wave c 1.618 at 177, H&S measured 171.047, deep 169.867. Three scenarios: → Break neckline 181, target 177. Probability: 40% → Break then H&S measured 171. Probability: 25% → Technical bounce to 185 then resumes lower. Probability: 20% Invalidation: daily close above RS 186.547. The tell: the pipeline shows 1.52% carry. The real number is 0.21%. When the market catches up, the decline accelerates. Conviction: High Bear. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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