DXY - A 13-Month High After the FOMC Confirms Wave (3), a Wave (4) Pullback to 99.1 Sets Up the Wave (5) Push Toward 103-104
DXY - A 13-Month High After the FOMC Confirms Wave (3), a Wave (4) Pullback to 99.1 Sets Up the Wave (5) Push Toward 103-104
Reference data | as of 22/06/2026, 12:51 GMT+7
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 100.623 | TradingView live |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.480% | sidebar live |
| US 2Y Yield | 4.220% | sidebar live |
| Real Yield US (corrected) | 0.280% | US10Y minus May CPI actual 4.2% |
| JP 10Y Yield | 2.660% | sidebar live |
| DE 10Y Yield | 2.980% | sidebar live |
| UK 10Y Yield | 4.840% | sidebar live (GB10Y) |
| Fed | Hold + projected hike later 2026 | FOMC 17/06 |
| BoJ | 1.00%, hawkish guidance | hiked 16/06 |
| ECB | 2.00%, neutral hold | cut 05/06 |
| VIX | 16.70 | sidebar live |
| EURUSD | 1.1461 | sidebar live |
| USDJPY | 161.678 | sidebar live |
| GBPUSD | 1.3216 | sidebar live |
Data quality warning. Seven corrections. US pipeline CPI 2.4% stale; actual May is 4.2%, real yield 0.280%. Pipeline Fed field outdated; the FOMC on 17/06 held with a projected hike later in 2026, a hawkish dot plot. Pipeline BoJ "Hold" outdated; the BoJ hiked to 1.00% with hawkish guidance. Pipeline JP10Y 1.47% stale; actual 2.660%. Pipeline ECB 2.50% cutting; actual 2.00% neutral hold. Pipeline UK10Y 4.50% stale; actual 4.840%. Pipeline DE10Y 2.99; actual 2.980%.
L0 - Regime Identification
DXY enters the week of June 22 at a 13-month high, a position it reached after the hawkish FOMC last week and has since held. This is a confirmed bullish-impulse regime, where the technical structure, the policy foundation, and the intermarket picture all lean higher, with a wave (4) correction likely to create an opportunity before wave (5) begins.
The policy foundation this week is firmer than last week because two major events have concluded and confirmed the direction. The FOMC under Warsh held rates with a projected hike later in 2026, a hawkish dot plot, and the dollar extended its gains to a 13-month high. At the same time, the Iran peace talks Round 1 ended but cracks have emerged, per the newsfeed noting cracks in the peace deal, an uncertainty that last week had removed haven premium now partially returning to support the dollar.
The Elliott Wave structure on the daily chart shows DXY in a large impulse starting from the wave (C) bottom in early 2025. Wave (1) up near 99, wave (2) down near 95.5 to 96, and wave (3) now nearing completion near 101, with clear internal sub-waves. The current price of 100.623 sits within the wave (3) completion zone, and the wave count expects a wave (4) pullback before wave (5) pushes toward the 103.571 then 104.246 to 104.734 targets. The regime label is therefore A 13-Month High Confirming Wave (3), with a near-term expectation of a wave (4) pullback to 99.1 to 99.4 before wave (5) heads toward 103 to 104.
L1 - Driver Stack
The forces acting on DXY this week lean structurally bullish, with a technical correction possibly intervening.
The first bullish driver is the confirmed hawkish Fed policy divergence. The dot plot under Warsh projected a hike later this year, and the dollar has held its 13-month high. The second is cracks in the Iran peace talks. Last week the Hormuz MOU removed significant haven premium; now cracks return uncertainty and support the dollar through the haven channel. The third is elevated US yields across the curve, with US10Y at 4.480% and US2Y jumping to 4.220%, real yield 0.280%. The fourth is the uniform dollar basket: EURUSD 1.1461, GBPUSD 1.3216, USDJPY 161.678 all confirm broad dollar strength.
On the resistance side, the first force is technical: wave (3) has extended and price sits in the completion zone, so a wave (4) pullback is natural. The newsfeed aligns: "Dollar's Appreciation Likely to be Limited" reflects the view that the near-term advance needs a breather. The second is the BoJ hike to 1.00%, compressing the US-JP spread to about 1.82% and creating mild counter-pressure through the yen component of the basket.
L2 - Macro Snapshot
The macro frame for DXY this week is a confirmed hawkish Fed, the dollar at a 13-month high, and fresh uncertainty from cracks in the Iran peace process.
On the US side, the FOMC on 17/06 held rates with a projected hike later in 2026, a hawkish dot plot. DXY climbed to a 13-month high near 101 and has held. The US real yield is 0.280%. US2Y jumped to 4.220%, reflecting the market digesting the hawkish dots. Waller speaks today and Flash PMI plus ADP tomorrow are the next event risk for the dollar leg.
Internationally, the Iran peace talks Round 1 ended but cracks appeared. Last week the Hormuz MOU removed significant haven premium; now the uncertainty returns. Brent fell 3% to 79.7, reflecting both peace progress and weak demand. The ECB at 2.00% on a neutral hold no longer cuts, mildly supporting the euro but not enough to reverse dollar strength. The BoJ at 1.00% with hawkish guidance, JP10Y at 2.660%, compresses the US-JP spread.
VIX at 16.70, ticking up slightly, shows a more cautious market without panic. The overall picture is the dollar at a long-term high, the policy foundation firm, but counterpart central banks beginning to narrow the policy gap (BoJ hike, ECB pause), suggesting the DXY advance needs a breather before pushing further.
L3 - HTF Structure (D1 Chart)
The daily chart structure is a large bullish impulse in the wave (3) completion phase, and it is the primary positioning frame.
DXY bottomed at wave (C) in early 2025, formed a Higher Low, then started a new impulse. Wave (1) rose near 99, wave (2) corrected near 95.5 to 96, and wave (3) is now nearing completion near 101, with clear internal 1-2-3-4-5 sub-waves. The current price of 100.623 sits within the wave (3) high zone.
The chart projection shows that after wave (3) completes, a wave (4) pullback is expected toward 99.427 then 99.113, and potentially deeper to 98.549. The 100.483 level is nearby support. After wave (4), wave (5) is expected to push toward 103.571, then 104.246 to 104.734.
The wave-count invalidation is marked clearly on the chart at 97.695, coinciding with 97.495. A daily close below that level negates the bullish impulse structure. Above it, the bullish structure remains intact and the projected path is a wave (4) pullback then wave (5) toward 103 to 104.
L4 - Intermarket Cross-Check
The intermarket complex supports the DXY bullish scenario through basket uniformity and the yield foundation.
EURUSD at 1.1461, the 57.6% weight in DXY, is in a low zone confirming dollar strength. USDJPY at 161.678, the 13.6% weight, near a 23-month high despite the BoJ hike, shows the dollar leg overpowering the yen leg. GBPUSD at 1.3216, the 11.9% weight, also lower after last week's soft UK CPI. All three major components confirm a strong DXY.
US yields across the curve remain elevated. US10Y at 4.480% and US2Y at 4.220%, with a real yield of 0.280%, create a foundation attracting capital into the dollar. The US-DE spread around 1.50% and US-JP spread around 1.82% both tilt toward the dollar, though they have narrowed versus prior readings (due to the BoJ hike and DE10Y ticking up to 2.980%).
VIX at 16.70, ticking up, shows caution. Crude declining (Brent 79.7, -3%) reflects both Iran peace progress and weak demand, a neutral to mildly supportive backdrop for the dollar.
L5 - Event Risk
The calendar this week for DXY revolves around US data and the Iran peace trajectory.
Today, 22/06: Waller speaks. An opportunity for the market to hear more on the hawkish FOMC stance. A hawkish Waller reinforces the advance; a cautious Waller could trigger the wave (4) start.
Tomorrow, 23/06: Flash Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment. Strong US data reinforces the hawkish dots and lifts DXY; weak data triggers the wave (4) pullback.
Ongoing: Iran peace talks Round 2. Cracks appeared after Round 1. A collapse in talks pushes haven premium back and supports DXY; further progress reduces it.
Scenario matrix:
- Wave (4) pullback to 99.4 to 99.1 then wave (5) to 103 to 104: the standard count. Probability: 40%.
- Strong data or deeper Iran cracks, wave (3) extension directly through 101 toward 103. Probability: 25%.
- Deeper wave (4) to 98.549, weak data triggers it, then the advance resumes. Probability: 20%.
- Break below 97.695, invalidation. Probability: 15%.
L6 - Conviction Scorecard
| Factor | Bull DXY | Bear DXY | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed hawkish FOMC, 13-month high | Bullish | -- | High |
| Iran peace cracks, haven premium | Bullish | -- | Medium |
| Elevated US yields across the curve | Bullish | -- | High |
| Uniform dollar basket (EUR/GBP/JPY) | Bullish | -- | High |
| Wave (3) near completion | Structurally bullish | Wave (4) pullback expected | High |
| BoJ hike 1%, spread narrowing | -- | Mild drag via yen component | Medium |
| "Dollar Appreciation Likely Limited" | -- | Near-term caution | Low |
| Waller + PMI tomorrow | Two-sided event risk | Two-sided event risk | High |
Composite conviction: Medium-High Bull structural. The foundation is confirmed strong: hawkish FOMC, DXY at a 13-month high, uniform basket, elevated yields. Iran peace cracks add haven support. But wave (3) has extended and price sits in the completion zone, so a wave (4) pullback to 99.1 to 99.4 is natural. This is a better positioning opportunity for wave (5) toward 103 to 104 than chasing at the top. Invalidation below 97.695.
L7 - Time Horizon
24 to 48 hours: Waller today and PMI/ADP tomorrow are the catalysts. Bias bullish but the wave (4) pullback may begin if data is weak. Range: 99.4 to 101.
1 to 2 weeks: Wave (4) pullback to 99.4 to 99.1 creates the buy zone. Then wave (5) pushes toward 103 to 104. Iran developments and US data are catalysts. Range: 98.5 to 104 depending on the scenario.
1 to 3 months: The medium-term bullish thesis toward 103 to 104 remains intact as long as the Fed stays hawkish. The main risk is counterpart central banks narrowing the policy gap (continued BoJ hikes, a more hawkish ECB) and a complete Iran peace deal removing haven premium. Invalidation below 97.695.
L8 - Invalidation Conditions
The bullish thesis for DXY fails if price closes below 97.695 on a daily basis, the level marked clearly on the chart as invalidation, negating the bullish impulse structure.
The wave (4) pullback is confirmed if DXY breaks below 100.483 then 99.427. Wave (5) is triggered if DXY holds the 99.1 to 98.549 region in wave (4) then breaks above the wave (3) high near 101, opening the path to 103.571 then 104.246 to 104.734.
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. All levels and scenarios are analytical frameworks based on publicly available data. Past structure does not guarantee future results. Readers are solely responsible for their own trading decisions.
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Intermarket Edge | Published 22/06/2026