Tag: USD

DXY - Price Holds Above 100.98 Despite a Sharp June NFP Miss at Just 57K, Wave (5) Toward 103-104.5 Remains Intact

DXY - SUMMARY 06/07/2026 Regime: Dollar holds steady after a sharp NFP miss, Medium Bull. June NFP came in at just +57K versus a 110K forecast, weakest in four months, yet DXY still stands at 100.982 because wave (4) had already finished absorbing at 99.1-99.6 before the data landed, real yield remains positive at +0.27%, and the Fed stays hawkish post the Warsh FOMC. Bias: Medium Bull (trimmed from Medium-High Bull last week). New factor: June NFP missed sharply at +57K, May revised down from +172K to +129K, unemployment held at 4.2%. VIX low at 15.81, no defensive risk-off yet. Data corrections: CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%); US2Y 4.12% (not 3.668%); Fed Hold with hawkish bias post-Warsh (not "40% hike odds"). D1 structure: wave (4) absorbed 99.113-99.618, price cleared to 100.982, retesting the reaction high at 101.5-102. Wave (5) targets: 101.808 then 103.957, zone 103-104.5. Invalidation below 97.695. Scenarios: wave (5) continues toward 103-104.5 (40%); weak ISM Services pulls price back to retest 99.1-99.6 (30%); range pending confirmation (15%); break below 97.695 invalidates the wave count (15%). Decisive event today: ISM Services PMI and a Waller speech. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

Jul 6, 2026

DXY - Wave (4) Absorbing After Completing a 13-Month High, NFP on 3 July Is the Decisive Catalyst for Wave (5)

DXY - SUMMARY 29/06/2026 Regime: Wave (4) Absorbing, Neutral Near Term, Bullish Medium Term. DXY 101.019, pulled back from wave (3) high at 104.2 -- a 13-month high -- to 100.6 last week then bounced modestly to 101.0. Elliott five-wave structure intact. Declining volume in the pullback confirms correction, not reversal. Bias: Medium-High Bull medium term. Neutral within current wave (4). Macro foundation: US CPI actual 4.2% (pipeline 2.4% stale), Fed Warsh hawkish hold, rate differential +225bps vs EUR (ECB 2.00% neutral hold), +325bps vs JPY (BoJ 1.00%). US10Y 4.372%, yield curve steepening +27bps, real yield +0.172%. Data corrections: JP10Y 2.63% (not 1.47%); US-JP spread 1.742% (not 2.924%); DE10Y 2.85% (not 2.99%); ECB neutral 2.00% (not cutting 2.50%). D1 structure: wave (4) absorption zone 99.6 (Fib 0.382) to 99.1 (Fib 0.5). Resistance: 101.5 / 102.0 / 102.5. Support: 100.48 (Higher Low) / 99.6 / 99.1 / 98.0. Wave (5) target 103-104.5. Extended: 106. Invalidation: 97.695. Scenarios: test 99.6-99.1 then wave (5) 103-104.5 (60%); low already printed at 100.6, break of 102.0 = early wave (5) (30%); NFP miss, below 98 (10%). Event risk: Chicago PMI 30 June, ADP 1 July, NFP 3 July -- decisive catalyst. Above 220K = early wave (5) trigger. Do not chase before NFP. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 29, 2026

USDJPY - Wave (5) Exhaustion Confirmed as Price Failed to Break 161.94 for an Entire Week, Tokyo CPI Beat Gives the BoJ More Ammunition

USDJPY 161.651 | Wave (5) exhaustion confirmed, Tokyo CPI beats | 26 June 2026 Last week: "Wave (5) exhaustion at the intervention ceiling, expect correction to 155-157." One week later: price stood at 161.6, unable to break 161.94 despite DXY at a 13-month high. Exhaustion is no longer speculation. Then Tokyo CPI June released today. Core-core 1.9% y/y, beat 1.8% forecast, up from 1.6%. The BoJ has fresh ammunition to hike again. Yen-supportive. DXY pulled back from 101.5 to 100.6. VIX jumped to 20.20 (+7.1%). Risk-off intensifying, carry-unwind pressure. Pipeline showed wrong numbers. JP10Y: 1.47% (actual 2.600%). US-JP spread: 2.924% (actual 1.790%). BoJ: "Hold" (actual: hiked to 1.00%). D1 structure: wave (5) at the 161.94 ceiling, failed to break after one full week. Correction targets: 158.953 (0.382), 155.244 (0.5), 153.5 (0.618). Extension if breaks 161.94: 164. Invalidation: below 152. Three scenarios: → Correction (a)(b)(c) to 155-157. Probability: 40% → MOF intervention, sharp drop to 155 then 152. Probability: 25% → DXY bounces, breaks 161.94, extension to 164. Probability: 20% The tell: one week at the ceiling, it didn't break. Then the BoJ's data came in hot. Exhaustion confirmed. Conviction: Medium Bear near-term (shifted from Med Bull correction lean). --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 26, 2026

DXY - A 13-Month High After the FOMC Confirms Wave (3), a Wave (4) Pullback to 99.1 Sets Up the Wave (5) Push Toward 103-104

DXY 100.623 | 13-month high confirms wave (3), wave (4) pullback ahead | 22 June 2026 Last week the FOMC confirmed the direction. This week the dollar holds a 13-month high -- and the chart says the pullback before the next leg up is the trade to watch. Foundation: the FOMC under Warsh held + projected a hike later in 2026. DXY climbed to a 13-month high and held. The basket is uniform: EURUSD 1.1461, GBPUSD 1.3216, USDJPY 161.678. US yields elevated: US10Y 4.480%, US2Y jumped to 4.220%, real yield 0.280%. New wrinkle: Iran peace talks Round 1 ended but cracks emerged. The haven premium that drained last week is partially returning. The pipeline showed you the wrong numbers. CPI US: 2.4% (actual 4.2%). Fed: "Hold ~40% hike Apr 2027" (actual: hold + projected hike later 2026). BoJ: "Hold" (actual: hiked to 1.00%). JP10Y: 1.47% (actual: 2.660%). ECB: 2.50% cutting (actual: 2.00% neutral). D1 structure: a large impulse. (1) ~99, (2) ~95.5, (3) nearing completion ~101. Wave (4) pullback expected to 99.427/99.113, deeper to 98.549. Then wave (5) to 103.571 then 104.246-104.734. Invalidation: 97.695. Three scenarios: → Wave (4) to 99.4-99.1 then wave (5) to 103-104. Probability: 40% → Strong data or deeper Iran cracks, extension through 101 toward 103. Probability: 25% → Deeper wave (4) to 98.549, weak data triggers, then resume. Probability: 20% Event risk: Waller today, Flash PMI + ADP tomorrow. The tell: wave (4) pullback. Strong data skips it and extends to 103; weak data triggers the dip to 99.1 that sets up the real move. Do not chase at the 100.6 top. Conviction: Medium-High Bull structural. Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 22, 2026

EURJPY - BoJ Hikes with Hawkish Guidance, the Yen-Positive Catalyst Activates the Head and Shoulders

Everyone Was Braced for the One Dovish Sentence That Crashed the Yen in 2024. Today the BoJ Said the Opposite — and a Textbook Top Just Got Its Trigger. EURJPY 185.55. For days, the single biggest risk to anyone short the yen was a replay of August 2024 — when Deputy Governor Uchida used one press conference to reverse the entire BoJ signal and set off a global carry unwind. The market braced for that sentence again. It got the opposite. The BoJ hiked to 1% today — the first time Japan's policy rate has been at 1% in over three decades — and attached hawkish guidance to it. The statement says the bank will continue hiking, warns underlying inflation risks deviating above its 2% target, and judges the risk of a sharp growth slowdown has decreased. The only dovish note: conditions remain accommodative even after the hike. The bond market read it instantly. JP10Y jumped +2.68% to 2.643%. Here is the number that matters and that most screens get wrong. The data pipeline still shows Japan's 10-year at 1.47%, implying a wide, EURJPY-friendly Germany-Japan carry spread near 1.5%. The real spread, using the live 2.643%, is just 0.327% — and compressing by the hour. The euro's advantage over the yen is evaporating in real time. Now the chart. EURJPY has been carving a textbook Head and Shoulders top: left shoulder in January, the head near 188 in February, and the right shoulder forming right now at 185.5-186.5. The neckline sits at 181. The hawkish hike is the fundamental trigger this pattern was waiting for. Why hasn't it dropped yet? Two reasons. Japan's Ministry of Finance is defending the 160 line on USDJPY, capping yen strength on the dollar leg. And the dollar is firming into tonight's Fed dot plot. The move is coiled, not cancelled. Three scenarios: Right-shoulder rejection + break below the 181 neckline: H&S target 171.047. Probability: 40%. Hawkish Fed + MOF holds 160: EURJPY ranges 184-186.5, the shoulder extends. Probability: 30%. Risk-off Fed + carry unwi

Jun 16, 2026

DXY - Safe-Haven Premium Unwinds After Hormuz MOU, Entering the BoJ and Fed Decision Week

DXY Spotlight: The Haven Premium Drains, the Dot Plot Decides The dollar index opens the week at 99.157, a ten-day low, as the confirmed US-Iran memorandum over the Strait of Hormuz drains the war premium that had propped the greenback through the conflict phase. The reversal is broad and immediate. The volatility index collapsed more than nine percent to 17.67, the S&P 500 climbed 1.20 percent to 7,520, crude sank 4.38 percent with WTI at 80.59, and the yuan pushed to a three-year high. This is no longer a haven trade. It is a transitional regime where a tactical downside lean prevails until the first dot plot under Warsh resolves the structural question. On the daily, the index completed a five-wave impulse into the 101.5 peak in March, then turned corrective. Wave (a) fell to 98.0, wave (b) bounced to test the 100.032 to 100.398 resistance band and failed precisely at the 100.40 invalidation, and wave (c) is now unfolding lower. The measured target sits at 98.64, then 97.695, extending toward 97.05 should momentum build. The 98.00 pivot is the line that matters: a decisive close beneath it confirms acceleration. The structural anchor is the real yield. Subtract the 4.2 percent May CPI from the 4.428 percent ten-year and you get roughly 0.23 percent, far beneath the one percent threshold that would cement a durable dollar uptrend. Until inflation cools or the Fed hikes, the ceiling holds. That is why gold can rise 2.58 percent to 4,327 even as risk appetite recovers; de-dollarization demand and low real yields are dominating, and the inverse gold-dollar correlation is reinforcing the downside. The basket mechanics lean the same way. The euro, 57.6 percent of the index, rose to 1.1614 and drags the dollar lower directly, while USDJPY at 160.04 stalls into the Bank of Japan. Two events define the week. The Bank of Japan meets June 16 with a sixty-six percent hike probability, and with Ueda hospitalized, Uchida holds the press conference whose first hundred word

Jun 15, 2026

EURUSD — Iran and Israel Halt Attacks, Dollar Retreats from Two-Month High, and Wave (c) Is Still in Progress

EURUSD 1.1578 | Iran-Israel halt | 09 June 2026 Iran and Israel announced a halt to attacks following a Trump appeal. Dollar retreated from its two-month high. EURUSD bounced 43 pips from 1.1535 to 1.1578. Brent fell from $98 to $92.86. VIX declined from 21.57 to 18.06. The question is whether this is a structural reversal or a tactical relief rally. The answer is in what has — and has not — changed. What has changed: the safe-haven dollar premium from Iran-Israel escalation is partially unwinding. Germany's Industrial Production grew +0.4% MoM in April — the first positive reading since the Iran war began. What has NOT changed: NFP 172K, Fed hike probability at 74.8%, corrected real yield at 0.740% and rising toward 1%, the ECB-Fed differential of 1.25-1.50 percentage points in the dollar's favor, and the wave (c) corrective structure targeting 1.1200. The clearest structural tell: USDJPY at 160.189 is not declining despite the broad dollar retreat. In a pure geopolitical unwind, the yen would be surging. The fact that it is holding above 160 confirms the structural rate differential dollar bid is intact — today's EURUSD bounce is tactical, not structural. SocGen Juckes: "The big event this week is the US CPI data. A big upside surprise and the dollar gets a bid. A benign print and that is a different story." Invalidation: daily close above 1.1920. Wave (c) targets: 1.1200 → 1.0950. Do not add directional exposure before CPI Wednesday June 11. Conviction: Medium, Neutral-to-Mild Bear.

Jun 9, 2026

DXY — Iran Strikes Israel, Warsh Declares Independence, and the Deal Decompression Narrative Is Dead

DXY 99.971 | VIX 21.57 | 08 June 2026 The deal decompression narrative is dead. Three weeks of DXY Medium Bear analysis has been overridden in a single weekend. On Sunday night, Iran launched multiple barrages of ballistic missiles toward Israel — the first bombardment since the fragile April 8 ceasefire. Israel struck back on Monday with airstrikes on central and western Iran, while a US military base in Saudi Arabia came under fire in the most serious exchange of hostilities since the ceasefire. Brent has rebounded from $91.69 to $96.99. VIX has spiked from 15.73 to 21.57. S&P 500 is down 200 points. DXY is surging toward the 100.40 invalidation level that, if closed above on a daily basis, formally terminates the Medium Bear framework. Yahoo FinanceMarketPulse The second driver is Warsh. At his Senate confirmation hearing, the new Fed chair framed political pressure as a "test of independence rather than a threat" and committed the Fed to operating on "best assessment of what will serve the public rather than the preferences of the president." EY-Parthenon chief economist notes the June 16-17 FOMC "could acknowledge it may have to hike rates if inflation remains above the 2% target." With May NFP beating at an estimated 130-160K and oil re-accelerating on Iran-Israel, the hike probability has moved from tail to meaningful base case. Investing.com Real yield corrected: 0.736%. Still below 1% structural threshold — but the tactical safe-haven bid and inflation re-acceleration are overriding it. Invalidation of bear count: daily close above 100.40. Bull targets if invalidation: 101.00 → 101.50. Bear survives if: Iran-Israel de-escalates within 48-72 hours. Warsh FOMC June 16-17 is the gating event. Conviction: Medium-High Bull.

Jun 8, 2026

EURUSD — NFP Beats, ECB Cuts to 2.25%, and the 1.1600 Floor Is Holding a Structural Conversation

Jun 5, 2026