USDCAD - CAD Hits a 14-Month Low as Oil Breaks Below $70 and DXY Holds a 13-Month High, a Double Squeeze Drives Wave (3) Toward 1.4447
USDCAD - CAD Hits a 14-Month Low as Oil Breaks Below $70 and DXY Holds a 13-Month High, a Double Squeeze Drives Wave (3) Toward 1.4447
Reference data | as of 25/06/2026, 19:53 GMT+7
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | 1.4232 | TradingView live |
| DXY | 101.534 | sidebar live, 13-month high |
| USOIL (WTI) | $69.41 | sidebar live, below $70 |
| Brent | $73.08 | sidebar live |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.378% | sidebar live |
| VIX | 17.84 | sidebar live |
| AUDUSD | 0.691 | sidebar live |
Data quality warning. Pipeline CPI US 2.4% stale; actual 4.2%. Pipeline Fed outdated; FOMC 17/06 held with a projected hike. EIA actual 24/06: -6.088M draw (market shrugged it off). Oil broke below $70 and the pre-war support of 71.11.
L0 - Regime Identification
USDCAD enters the evening of June 25 in a double squeeze that last week had just begun and this week has clearly accelerated. The Canadian dollar hit a 14-month low, pressured from both sides simultaneously: the USD leg at its strongest in 13 months (DXY 101.534 post-hawkish FOMC) and the CAD leg at its weakest in 14 months (oil breaking below $70, the war premium fully erased). This is a High Bull regime, upgraded from Medium-High last week.
Versus the June 18 analysis, every driver has intensified. DXY held its peak. Oil fell from $73.58 to $69.41, breaking the 71.11 pre-war support. BoC Governor Macklem stated today they are not seeing much in spillovers from higher global oil prices into other CPI components, an implicitly dovish tone suggesting the BoC is in no hurry to hike. Wave (3) is running with clear sub-waves, targeting 1.4447 then 1.4540.
L1 - Driver Stack
The first bullish driver is DXY at a 13-month high post-hawkish FOMC. The second is oil breaking below $70, directly CAD-negative since Canada is a major oil exporter. The third is BoC Macklem's implicitly dovish stance. The fourth is risk-off (VIX 17.84), tech selloff driving haven flows into USD and out of commodity FX. The fifth is wave (3) momentum with clear structure.
On the resistance side, USDCAD is at a 14-month high where a technical correction may intervene. But when both legs tilt the same way, corrections tend to be shallow.
L2 - Macro Snapshot
On the US side, the hawkish FOMC is confirmed, DXY at a 13-month high, PMI beat, positive real yield.
On the Canada side, oil breaking below $70 is the most important variable. Oil falling from the $120 war peak to $69 is a terms-of-trade shock for an oil-exporting nation. BoC Macklem: not seeing spillovers from higher oil prices into other CPI components, suggesting no hurry to hike. Canada benchmark yields slipping. CAD at a 14-month low as tech selloff drives safe-haven into USD.
AUDUSD at 0.691, broad commodity FX weakness, confirming CAD weakness is not idiosyncratic.
L3 - HTF Structure (D1 Chart)
Wave (1) up near 1.405, wave (2) corrected to near 1.35, wave (3) impulse running. Price at 1.4232 sits within wave (3).
Key levels:
- Wave (3) target: 1.4447 then 1.4540
- Nearby support: 1.4100 then 1.3993 (wave 4 fib 0.382)
- Invalidation: daily close below wave (2) low ~1.3476
L4 - Intermarket Cross-Check
DXY 101.534 (USD leg) + USOIL $69.41 (CAD leg) = double squeeze. AUDUSD 0.691, broad commodity FX weakness. Brent 73.08, oil weak globally. VIX 17.84, risk-off tilts USD.
L5 - Event Risk
Already occurred: Hawkish FOMC. Oil below $70. BoC Macklem dovish. CAD 14-month low.
Ahead: Canada CPI and economic data. Next BoC meeting. Oil trajectory (Hormuz).
| Scenario | Target | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wave (3) continues to 1.4447 then 1.4540 | 1.454 | 45% |
| Sub-wave 4 correction to 1.40 then resumes | 1.40 then 1.445 | 25% |
| Oil bounces + dovish Fed, drops to 1.39 | 1.39 | 15% |
| Oil collapses to $63, breaks 1.454 | 1.46+ | 15% |
L6 - Conviction Scorecard
High Bull. Double squeeze: DXY 13-month high + oil below $70 + BoC dovish + wave (3) running + broad commodity FX weakness. Target 1.4447/1.4540. Invalidation: below 1.3476.
L7 - Time Horizon
24-48h: Bull momentum, CAD 14-month low. 1-2 weeks: Wave (3) target 1.4447. 1-3 months: Bull thesis intact while DXY strong and oil below $75. Invalidation: 1.3476.
L8 - Invalidation Conditions
The thesis fails if USDCAD closes below 1.3476. Confirmed when price holds above 1.40 heading toward 1.4447.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are solely responsible for their own trading decisions.
Weekly institutional macro analysis across 9 instruments.
Telegram: t.me/intermarket_edge
TradingView: IntermarketEdgeFX2026
Intermarket Edge | Published 25/06/2026