Tag: Fed

Intermarket Analysis

DXY Week 2026-W29: Bullish Trend Intact, Medium Conviction as COT Confirmation Remains Incomplete

DXY closed the week at 101.14, sitting right on the weekly VWAP — a level to watch closely. Bias is bullish with medium conviction over a 3-week horizon, but several moving parts deserve attention before leaning hard into that view. TECHNICAL PICTURE All three timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) are trend-aligned bullish — the strongest technical configuration this framework can produce. Key structural support sits at TrendSL 99.48; a weekly close below that level invalidates the bullish structure outright. Holding above weekly VWAP (101.14) is the near-term line in the sand for momentum. MACRO DRIVERS The bull case rests on Fed policy divergence: relative to G6 central banks, the Fed remains restrictive. US 10Y real yield at 2.31% keeps USD assets attractive to global capital. CPI pressure is keeping the Fed on hold longer, reinforcing the rate differential argument. These are real, durable drivers — not noise. WHERE IT GETS COMPLICATED COT positioning is bullish but not yet crowded — smart money appears to be accumulating longs, which is constructive. However, liquidity and sentiment indicators contributed nothing to the bull case this week; no confirming signals fired in either category. Structural bias remains neutral, which sits in direct conflict with the short-term directional read. The macro score itself carries a conditional flag: it defaults bullish pending fuller COT confirmation. Crowding risk is low for now, but worth monitoring as positioning builds. BOTTOM LINE Trend-follow bias is intact, but this is not a high-conviction setup. Watch 101.14 (VWAP) and 99.48 (TrendSL) as the two hard reference points. -- Intermarket Edge

Jul 13, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

DXY - Price Holds Above 100.98 Despite a Sharp June NFP Miss at Just 57K, Wave (5) Toward 103-104.5 Remains Intact

DXY - SUMMARY 06/07/2026 Regime: Dollar holds steady after a sharp NFP miss, Medium Bull. June NFP came in at just +57K versus a 110K forecast, weakest in four months, yet DXY still stands at 100.982 because wave (4) had already finished absorbing at 99.1-99.6 before the data landed, real yield remains positive at +0.27%, and the Fed stays hawkish post the Warsh FOMC. Bias: Medium Bull (trimmed from Medium-High Bull last week). New factor: June NFP missed sharply at +57K, May revised down from +172K to +129K, unemployment held at 4.2%. VIX low at 15.81, no defensive risk-off yet. Data corrections: CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%); US2Y 4.12% (not 3.668%); Fed Hold with hawkish bias post-Warsh (not "40% hike odds"). D1 structure: wave (4) absorbed 99.113-99.618, price cleared to 100.982, retesting the reaction high at 101.5-102. Wave (5) targets: 101.808 then 103.957, zone 103-104.5. Invalidation below 97.695. Scenarios: wave (5) continues toward 103-104.5 (40%); weak ISM Services pulls price back to retest 99.1-99.6 (30%); range pending confirmation (15%); break below 97.695 invalidates the wave count (15%). Decisive event today: ISM Services PMI and a Waller speech. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

Jul 6, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

DXY - Wave (4) Absorbing After Completing a 13-Month High, NFP on 3 July Is the Decisive Catalyst for Wave (5)

DXY - SUMMARY 29/06/2026 Regime: Wave (4) Absorbing, Neutral Near Term, Bullish Medium Term. DXY 101.019, pulled back from wave (3) high at 104.2 -- a 13-month high -- to 100.6 last week then bounced modestly to 101.0. Elliott five-wave structure intact. Declining volume in the pullback confirms correction, not reversal. Bias: Medium-High Bull medium term. Neutral within current wave (4). Macro foundation: US CPI actual 4.2% (pipeline 2.4% stale), Fed Warsh hawkish hold, rate differential +225bps vs EUR (ECB 2.00% neutral hold), +325bps vs JPY (BoJ 1.00%). US10Y 4.372%, yield curve steepening +27bps, real yield +0.172%. Data corrections: JP10Y 2.63% (not 1.47%); US-JP spread 1.742% (not 2.924%); DE10Y 2.85% (not 2.99%); ECB neutral 2.00% (not cutting 2.50%). D1 structure: wave (4) absorption zone 99.6 (Fib 0.382) to 99.1 (Fib 0.5). Resistance: 101.5 / 102.0 / 102.5. Support: 100.48 (Higher Low) / 99.6 / 99.1 / 98.0. Wave (5) target 103-104.5. Extended: 106. Invalidation: 97.695. Scenarios: test 99.6-99.1 then wave (5) 103-104.5 (60%); low already printed at 100.6, break of 102.0 = early wave (5) (30%); NFP miss, below 98 (10%). Event risk: Chicago PMI 30 June, ADP 1 July, NFP 3 July -- decisive catalyst. Above 220K = early wave (5) trigger. Do not chase before NFP. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 29, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

USDCAD - CAD Hits a 14-Month Low as Oil Breaks Below $70 and DXY Holds a 13-Month High, a Double Squeeze Drives Wave (3) Toward 1.4447

USDCAD 1.4232 | Double squeeze: 13-month DXY high + oil below $70 | 25 June 2026 CAD hits a 14-month low, pressured from both sides simultaneously. USD leg: 13-month high post-hawkish FOMC. CAD leg: oil broke below $70 and the pre-war 71.11 support. When both legs tilt the same way, this is the strongest bullish configuration. BoC Macklem today: not seeing spillovers from higher oil prices into CPI. Implicitly dovish, BoC in no hurry to hike. Canada benchmark yields slipping. CAD at a 14-month low as tech selloff drives safe-haven into USD. AUDUSD at 0.691, broad commodity FX weakness. CAD weakness is not idiosyncratic. D1 structure: wave (3) impulse running. Target 1.4447 then 1.4540. Support 1.4100 then 1.3993. Invalidation: below 1.3476. Three scenarios: → Wave (3) continues to 1.4447 then 1.4540. Probability: 45% → Sub-wave 4 correction to 1.40 then resumes. Probability: 25% → Oil bounces + dovish Fed, drops to 1.39. Probability: 15% The tell: both legs tilting simultaneously. DXY strongest in 13 months, CAD weakest in 14. Not a coincidence. A double squeeze. Conviction: High Bull (upgraded from Med-High). --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 25, 2026

Macro Regime

DXY - A 13-Month High After the FOMC Confirms Wave (3), a Wave (4) Pullback to 99.1 Sets Up the Wave (5) Push Toward 103-104

DXY 100.623 | 13-month high confirms wave (3), wave (4) pullback ahead | 22 June 2026 Last week the FOMC confirmed the direction. This week the dollar holds a 13-month high -- and the chart says the pullback before the next leg up is the trade to watch. Foundation: the FOMC under Warsh held + projected a hike later in 2026. DXY climbed to a 13-month high and held. The basket is uniform: EURUSD 1.1461, GBPUSD 1.3216, USDJPY 161.678. US yields elevated: US10Y 4.480%, US2Y jumped to 4.220%, real yield 0.280%. New wrinkle: Iran peace talks Round 1 ended but cracks emerged. The haven premium that drained last week is partially returning. The pipeline showed you the wrong numbers. CPI US: 2.4% (actual 4.2%). Fed: "Hold ~40% hike Apr 2027" (actual: hold + projected hike later 2026). BoJ: "Hold" (actual: hiked to 1.00%). JP10Y: 1.47% (actual: 2.660%). ECB: 2.50% cutting (actual: 2.00% neutral). D1 structure: a large impulse. (1) ~99, (2) ~95.5, (3) nearing completion ~101. Wave (4) pullback expected to 99.427/99.113, deeper to 98.549. Then wave (5) to 103.571 then 104.246-104.734. Invalidation: 97.695. Three scenarios: → Wave (4) to 99.4-99.1 then wave (5) to 103-104. Probability: 40% → Strong data or deeper Iran cracks, extension through 101 toward 103. Probability: 25% → Deeper wave (4) to 98.549, weak data triggers, then resume. Probability: 20% Event risk: Waller today, Flash PMI + ADP tomorrow. The tell: wave (4) pullback. Strong data skips it and extends to 103; weak data triggers the dip to 99.1 that sets up the real move. Do not chase at the 100.6 top. Conviction: Medium-High Bull structural. Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 22, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

USOIL - The War Premium Fully Unwound to Pre-War Support, a Post-FOMC Bearish Tide Meets a Bullish -8.263M Draw

USOIL $73.58 | War premium fully unwound to pre-war support | 18 June 2026 Oil has handed back nearly the entire Iran-war rally and returned to where it started. Here, a bearish tide meets a bullish draw. The Iran war broke out Feb 28, lifting oil from ~57-70 to a 120 peak (April). The peace deal and the prospect of a Hormuz reopening have drained the haven premium steadily. Now 73.58, back in the pre-war zone. Last night's hawkish FOMC lifted DXY to ~100, VIX to 18.43, equities lower. A strong dollar plus demand risk is another bearish layer for oil. Add OPEC+ raising +411kbpd. But against the tide: the EIA draw was -8.263M (forecast just -3.6M, prior -7.227M). US supply is tightening -- a real support. The newsfeed agrees: "Tightness in US Crude Supplies Supports Prices." The pipeline showed you the wrong field. Pipeline EIA: "awaiting release." Actual: -8.263M. DXY now ~100 (jumped post-FOMC). D1 structure: key support 74.49-71.11 (pre-war zone). Resistance 78.06 → 80.74. A break of 71.11 opens 67-68 → 63.57. Three scenarios: → Hold 71.11 + inventory tightness: technical bounce toward 78-80. Probability: 35% → Break 71.11 (Hormuz fully reopens + OPEC + strong dollar): toward 67 then 63. Probability: 35% → Standoff, bearish macro vs bullish draw: 71-78. Probability: 30% Invalidation: daily close above 80.74. The tell: the 71.11 support against the inventory draws. A break with Hormuz fully reopening sends oil to 67; a hold on tightness bounces it to 78. Do not chase shorts into 71.11. Conviction: Medium Bear at support, two-sided. Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 18, 2026

Instrument Deep Dive

DXY - Safe-Haven Premium Unwinds After Hormuz MOU, Entering the BoJ and Fed Decision Week

DXY Spotlight: The Haven Premium Drains, the Dot Plot Decides The dollar index opens the week at 99.157, a ten-day low, as the confirmed US-Iran memorandum over the Strait of Hormuz drains the war premium that had propped the greenback through the conflict phase. The reversal is broad and immediate. The volatility index collapsed more than nine percent to 17.67, the S&P 500 climbed 1.20 percent to 7,520, crude sank 4.38 percent with WTI at 80.59, and the yuan pushed to a three-year high. This is no longer a haven trade. It is a transitional regime where a tactical downside lean prevails until the first dot plot under Warsh resolves the structural question. On the daily, the index completed a five-wave impulse into the 101.5 peak in March, then turned corrective. Wave (a) fell to 98.0, wave (b) bounced to test the 100.032 to 100.398 resistance band and failed precisely at the 100.40 invalidation, and wave (c) is now unfolding lower. The measured target sits at 98.64, then 97.695, extending toward 97.05 should momentum build. The 98.00 pivot is the line that matters: a decisive close beneath it confirms acceleration. The structural anchor is the real yield. Subtract the 4.2 percent May CPI from the 4.428 percent ten-year and you get roughly 0.23 percent, far beneath the one percent threshold that would cement a durable dollar uptrend. Until inflation cools or the Fed hikes, the ceiling holds. That is why gold can rise 2.58 percent to 4,327 even as risk appetite recovers; de-dollarization demand and low real yields are dominating, and the inverse gold-dollar correlation is reinforcing the downside. The basket mechanics lean the same way. The euro, 57.6 percent of the index, rose to 1.1614 and drags the dollar lower directly, while USDJPY at 160.04 stalls into the Bank of Japan. Two events define the week. The Bank of Japan meets June 16 with a sixty-six percent hike probability, and with Ueda hospitalized, Uchida holds the press conference whose first hundred word

Jun 15, 2026

Geopolitical Watch

EURUSD — Iran and Israel Halt Attacks, Dollar Retreats from Two-Month High, and Wave (c) Is Still in Progress

EURUSD 1.1578 | Iran-Israel halt | 09 June 2026 Iran and Israel announced a halt to attacks following a Trump appeal. Dollar retreated from its two-month high. EURUSD bounced 43 pips from 1.1535 to 1.1578. Brent fell from $98 to $92.86. VIX declined from 21.57 to 18.06. The question is whether this is a structural reversal or a tactical relief rally. The answer is in what has — and has not — changed. What has changed: the safe-haven dollar premium from Iran-Israel escalation is partially unwinding. Germany's Industrial Production grew +0.4% MoM in April — the first positive reading since the Iran war began. What has NOT changed: NFP 172K, Fed hike probability at 74.8%, corrected real yield at 0.740% and rising toward 1%, the ECB-Fed differential of 1.25-1.50 percentage points in the dollar's favor, and the wave (c) corrective structure targeting 1.1200. The clearest structural tell: USDJPY at 160.189 is not declining despite the broad dollar retreat. In a pure geopolitical unwind, the yen would be surging. The fact that it is holding above 160 confirms the structural rate differential dollar bid is intact — today's EURUSD bounce is tactical, not structural. SocGen Juckes: "The big event this week is the US CPI data. A big upside surprise and the dollar gets a bid. A benign print and that is a different story." Invalidation: daily close above 1.1920. Wave (c) targets: 1.1200 → 1.0950. Do not add directional exposure before CPI Wednesday June 11. Conviction: Medium, Neutral-to-Mild Bear.

Jun 9, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

DXY — Iran Strikes Israel, Warsh Declares Independence, and the Deal Decompression Narrative Is Dead

DXY 99.971 | VIX 21.57 | 08 June 2026 The deal decompression narrative is dead. Three weeks of DXY Medium Bear analysis has been overridden in a single weekend. On Sunday night, Iran launched multiple barrages of ballistic missiles toward Israel — the first bombardment since the fragile April 8 ceasefire. Israel struck back on Monday with airstrikes on central and western Iran, while a US military base in Saudi Arabia came under fire in the most serious exchange of hostilities since the ceasefire. Brent has rebounded from $91.69 to $96.99. VIX has spiked from 15.73 to 21.57. S&P 500 is down 200 points. DXY is surging toward the 100.40 invalidation level that, if closed above on a daily basis, formally terminates the Medium Bear framework. Yahoo FinanceMarketPulse The second driver is Warsh. At his Senate confirmation hearing, the new Fed chair framed political pressure as a "test of independence rather than a threat" and committed the Fed to operating on "best assessment of what will serve the public rather than the preferences of the president." EY-Parthenon chief economist notes the June 16-17 FOMC "could acknowledge it may have to hike rates if inflation remains above the 2% target." With May NFP beating at an estimated 130-160K and oil re-accelerating on Iran-Israel, the hike probability has moved from tail to meaningful base case. Investing.com Real yield corrected: 0.736%. Still below 1% structural threshold — but the tactical safe-haven bid and inflation re-acceleration are overriding it. Invalidation of bear count: daily close above 100.40. Bull targets if invalidation: 101.00 → 101.50. Bear survives if: Iran-Israel de-escalates within 48-72 hours. Warsh FOMC June 16-17 is the gating event. Conviction: Medium-High Bull.

Jun 8, 2026