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Financial intelligence, macro research, and inter-market analysis.

Instrument Deep Dive

USOIL - Below $71 Confirms the War Premium Fully Erased, Persian Gulf Flows Accelerate as the Market Shrugs Off a -6M Draw

USOIL $69.36 | Below $71, war premium fully erased | 25 June 2026 Last week: "Do not chase shorts into 71.11. A break confirms a further leg, target 67 then 63." It broke. Oil now $69.36, below the pre-war starting point. The most notable signal: the EIA drew 6.088M (forecast just 3.9M), the second consecutive larger-than-expected draw. The market shrugged it off entirely. Oil kept falling. When good news is ignored, the selling force dominates. Three forces: Persian Gulf flows accelerating as Hormuz reopens; global supply recovering + OPEC+ +411kbpd; DXY 101 at a 13-month high. Leading headlines: "Oil Sinks Toward Pre-War Levels", "Crude Oil Falls Below $70", "Oil Market Shrugs Off Large Crude Stock Draw." D1 structure: 71.11 broken (now resistance). Nearby support 67.05 then 63.57 then 62.77. Deep: 57.60 (pre-war bottom). Invalidation: daily close above 74.49. Three scenarios: → Continued decline to 67.05 then 63.57. Probability: 45% → Hormuz fully reopens, accelerates to 57.60. Probability: 25% → Technical bounce to test 71.11 (broken support), resumes lower. Probability: 20% The tell: two consecutive bullish draws, price still falls. The market has answered. Conviction: High Bear (upgraded from Medium Bear). --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 25, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

EURJPY - Head and Shoulders Confirmed, the DE-JP Carry Collapses to 0.21% as Hawkish BoJ Meets Neutral ECB, Target Neckline 181 Then 171

EURJPY 183.465 | H&S confirmed, carry collapses to 0.21% | 24 June 2026 Last week: "RS forming 185.5-186.5." This week: RS completed at 186.547, price left the RS, wave (c) running. H&S confirmed. But the bigger story is the carry. The pipeline shows DE-JP spread at about 1.52%. Entirely wrong. Actual: JP10Y jumped to 2.660% after the BoJ hike, DE10Y fell to 2.870%. The real spread is just +0.210%, near zero. This is the largest correction of all nine instruments this week. When carry vanishes, the top pattern forms naturally. The H&S is the structural consequence. Tokyo CPI June forecast to accelerate on commodity prices -- giving the BoJ grounds to hike further. Markets watching for follow-up. ECB 2.00% neutral, no EUR catalyst. D1 structure: LS ~185.5, Head 188.012, RS 186.547 (completed). Neckline 181. Price 183.465 between RS and neckline. Targets: break neckline 181, wave c 1.618 at 177, H&S measured 171.047, deep 169.867. Three scenarios: → Break neckline 181, target 177. Probability: 40% → Break then H&S measured 171. Probability: 25% → Technical bounce to 185 then resumes lower. Probability: 20% Invalidation: daily close above RS 186.547. The tell: the pipeline shows 1.52% carry. The real number is 0.21%. When the market catches up, the decline accelerates. Conviction: High Bear. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 24, 2026

Instrument Deep Dive

EURUSD - Wave (c) Confirmed After Breaking 1.141, a 13-Month DXY High and PMI Beat Push Euro Toward the 1.119 Projection

EURUSD 1.1370 | Wave (c) confirmed after breaking 1.141 | 24 June 2026 Last week's analysis set 1.141 as the bearish confirmation level. It broke. Wave (c) is now the base case, no longer a scenario. Three forces have converged since last week. DXY climbed to 101.476, a 13-month high. US PMI Manufacturing 55.7 beat the 54.7 forecast -- the economy is strong, the hike case is intact. Risk-off intensified: VIX 19.40, NAS -3.1% as tech slumped on rate bets. The euro leg has no catalyst. ECB 2.00% neutral. Vujcic: "haven't discussed the neutral rate." DE10Y fell to 2.920%, widening the DE-US spread to -1.570%. The pipeline showed wrong numbers. CPI US: 2.4% (actual 4.2%). DE10Y: 2.99% (actual 2.920%). ECB: 2.50% (actual 2.00%). Real yield: 0.290%, not 2%. D1 structure: wave (c) running with clear sub-waves. Sub-1 ~1.157, sub-2 bounce, sub-3 running (~1.137). Expect sub-4 bounce then sub-5 target 1.119. Deeper: 1.113 then 1.079-1.073. Three scenarios: → Sub-5 to 1.119. Probability: 45% → Strong data + risk-off accelerates through 1.119 to 1.079. Probability: 25% → Surprise weak data, sub-4 bounces to 1.145-1.150, resumes. Probability: 20% Invalidation: daily close above 1.192. Warning: reclaim 1.141. Conviction: High Bear (upgraded from Med-High). Every channel bearish, no divergence. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 24, 2026

Instrument Deep Dive

EURGBP - The PM Resigned and the Pair Didn't Flinch, a 1.86% Carry Crushes Political Risk at the 0.86110 Support

EURGBP 0.8622 | 1.86% carry crushes political risk | 23 June 2026 The UK Prime Minister just resigned. The pound should be weaker. EURGBP should be bouncing. But the pair barely moved, still pinned at the 0.86110 support. This is not an anomaly. This is the strongest bear signal of the week. Carry decides. UK10Y 4.770% above DE10Y 2.910% by 1.860 percentage points. The spread is nearly identical to last week (1.862%). Starmer's exit did not narrow carry, and when a pair doesn't react to a PM-level shock, the structural force is overwhelming. EUR is not strong enough to push it higher either. EURUSD 1.1392 falling. ECB neutral at 2.00%. Lane/Lagarde rhetoric mixed. The pipeline showed wrong numbers. UK10Y: 4.50% (actual 4.770%). DE10Y: 2.99% (actual 2.910%). ECB: 2.50% (actual 2.00%). D1 structure: descending channel intact from the 0.888 top. Wave (c) testing the 0.86110 support. A break opens 0.84418 then 0.84117. Invalidation: 0.87415. Three scenarios: → Break 0.86110, wave (c) to 0.84418 then 0.84117. Probability: 40% → Hold 0.86110, carry pins, range 0.860-0.865. Probability: 25% → Political crisis escalates, UK yields drop, delayed bounce to 0.87415. Probability: 20% The tell: EURGBP didn't react to a PM resignation. The 1.86% carry controls this pair. As long as it holds, the downside has the higher probability. Conviction: Medium-High Bear, increased versus last week. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 23, 2026

Instrument Deep Dive

GBPUSD - Triangle Breaks Down After Three Shocks in One Week: Starmer Resigns, Hawkish FOMC, Soft UK CPI

GBPUSD 1.3246 | Triangle breaks down after three shocks in one week | 23 June 2026 Last week GBPUSD was a two-sided setup awaiting two catalysts. Both landed bearish. Then yesterday the UK Prime Minister resigned. The triangle is broken. The debate is over. Three shocks, one week: → Starmer resigned 22/06. Leadership vacuum until 09/07. Pound dipped on the exit. → Hawkish FOMC 17/06. DXY at a 13-month high. Dot plot projects a hike later this year. → UK CPI soft miss 17/06. 2.8% vs 3.0%, m/m 0.2% vs 0.4%. Higher-for-longer BoE case weakened. The pipeline showed wrong numbers. GB10Y: 4.50% (actual 4.770%). UK-US spread: 0% (actual +0.290%, narrowed from +0.348%). CPI US: 2.4% (actual 4.2%). D1 structure: the contracting triangle broke down (confirming last week's 35% bearish scenario). Wave (c) is running. Price at 1.3246 heading to support 1.31580, target 1.30813 then 1.30077. Clear risk-off: VIX 19.90 (+15%), NAS -2.2%. Haven dollar strengthens. Only support: UK-US carry still positive but political risk outweighs it. Three scenarios: → Wave (c) continues to 1.30813 then 1.30077. Probability: 45% → Strong PMI bounces to 1.335, resumes lower. Probability: 25% → Risk-off + political risk accelerates, below 1.300. Probability: 20% Invalidation: daily close above 1.355. The tell: three shocks pointed one way. The triangle confirmed it. The political vacuum extends it. Conviction: Medium-High Bear. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 23, 2026

Macro Regime

XAUUSD - Wave c of Correction (4) Running, the Hawkish FOMC and a 13-Month DXY High Press Gold Toward the 4,036 Completion Zone

XAUUSD $4,191 | Wave c running, nearing the wave (4) floor | 22 June 2026 Last week gold was mildly bullish as Iran peace drained dollar haven premium. This week the thesis reversed entirely: hawkish FOMC, DXY at a 13-month high, positive real yield 0.290% -- all pressing gold. But price is approaching structural floor. Large wave count: wave (3) topped ~5,596, now in wave (4) correction. Inside (4): a ~4,400, b ~5,370, wave c running lower. Price $4,191, below the 4,381 pivot ("Watch for Price Rejection or Breakout"). Wave c target: 4,036. Deeper: 3,861-3,797 (green box). After wave (4) completes, wave (5) above 5,596 is the long-term picture. The pipeline showed wrong numbers. CPI US 2.4% (actual 4.2%, real yield 0.290%). Fed pipeline: "Hold ~40% hike Apr 2027" (actual: hold + projected hike later 2026). Chart header 2,763 is an artifact; actual $4,191. Also today: UK PM Starmer resigned, VIX jumped to 17.62, silver surged +1.6% -- partial safe-haven flow and precious metals bid despite the strong dollar. Three scenarios: → Wave c continues to 4,036, wave (4) completes. Probability: 40% → Weak data or Iran collapse, break above 4,381. Probability: 25% → Wave c deeper to 3,861-3,797. Probability: 20% The tell: the 4,381 pivot. A rejection keeps wave c alive; a breakout signals wave (4) done. Conviction: Medium Bear near-term, approaching floor. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 22, 2026

Macro Regime

DXY - A 13-Month High After the FOMC Confirms Wave (3), a Wave (4) Pullback to 99.1 Sets Up the Wave (5) Push Toward 103-104

DXY 100.623 | 13-month high confirms wave (3), wave (4) pullback ahead | 22 June 2026 Last week the FOMC confirmed the direction. This week the dollar holds a 13-month high -- and the chart says the pullback before the next leg up is the trade to watch. Foundation: the FOMC under Warsh held + projected a hike later in 2026. DXY climbed to a 13-month high and held. The basket is uniform: EURUSD 1.1461, GBPUSD 1.3216, USDJPY 161.678. US yields elevated: US10Y 4.480%, US2Y jumped to 4.220%, real yield 0.280%. New wrinkle: Iran peace talks Round 1 ended but cracks emerged. The haven premium that drained last week is partially returning. The pipeline showed you the wrong numbers. CPI US: 2.4% (actual 4.2%). Fed: "Hold ~40% hike Apr 2027" (actual: hold + projected hike later 2026). BoJ: "Hold" (actual: hiked to 1.00%). JP10Y: 1.47% (actual: 2.660%). ECB: 2.50% cutting (actual: 2.00% neutral). D1 structure: a large impulse. (1) ~99, (2) ~95.5, (3) nearing completion ~101. Wave (4) pullback expected to 99.427/99.113, deeper to 98.549. Then wave (5) to 103.571 then 104.246-104.734. Invalidation: 97.695. Three scenarios: → Wave (4) to 99.4-99.1 then wave (5) to 103-104. Probability: 40% → Strong data or deeper Iran cracks, extension through 101 toward 103. Probability: 25% → Deeper wave (4) to 98.549, weak data triggers, then resume. Probability: 20% Event risk: Waller today, Flash PMI + ADP tomorrow. The tell: wave (4) pullback. Strong data skips it and extends to 103; weak data triggers the dip to 99.1 that sets up the real move. Do not chase at the 100.6 top. Conviction: Medium-High Bull structural. Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 22, 2026

Macro Regime

USDJPY - Wave (5) Exhaustion at the 161.94 Intervention Ceiling, the BoJ Hike Compresses the Spread to 1.81% as the Yen Hits a 23-Month Low

USDJPY 161.354 | Wave (5) exhaustion at the 161.94 intervention ceiling | 19 June 2026 The foundation says bullish. The ceiling says caution. Three capping forces converge at exactly the level where Japan's MOF has intervened before -- and the wave count says the impulse is running out of room. USD leg strong: FOMC 17/06 held + projected hike later this year, DXY ~101. Japan May CPI subdued (core +1.4%, core-core +1.8%), less BoJ urgency. Three capping forces: First, acute MOF intervention risk. The yen hit a 23-month low, Japan warned verbally, USDJPY beyond 160. When triggered: 300-500 pips in hours. Second, the BoJ hiked to 1.00% with hawkish guidance. JP10Y jumped to 2.640% (not the stale 1.47%). The real US-JP spread is just 1.811% -- nearly a third narrower than the pipeline's 2.981%. Third, wave (5) exhaustion at the 161.940 ceiling. The wave count expects completion then an (a)(b)(c) correction. The pipeline showed you the wrong number. JP10Y: 1.47% (stale). Actual: 2.640%. US-JP spread: 2.981%. Actual: 1.811%. D1 structure: impulse (1)~149, (2)~140, (3)~159, (4)~152, (5) now ~161.35, ceiling 161.940. Correction targets: 157.2 (0.382) / 155.2 (0.5) / 153.5 (0.618). Above 161.94 opens extension to 164. Three scenarios: → Wave (5) completes then correction to 155-157. Probability: 35% → MOF intervention, sharp drop to 155 then 152. Probability: 25% → Break above 161.94, extension to 164. Probability: 25% The tell: three forces at one ceiling. Wave (5), the MOF warning, and the compressed spread all point to 161.94. Above it, 164; below 160, the correction begins. Do not chase longs at 161. Conviction: Medium Bull structural, near-term correction lean. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 19, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

USDCAD - Wave (3) Impulse on Post-FOMC Dollar Strength, CAD at a 7-Month Low, a Wave (4) Pullback Sets Up the Wave (5) Push Toward 1.45

USDCAD 1.4115 | Wave (3) impulse on post-FOMC dollar strength | 18 June 2026 Two currencies moving in opposite directions met in one pair: the Fed projected a hike, and the Canadian dollar hit a 7-month low. The wave count says the big move hasn't started yet. USD leg: the FOMC on 17/06 held rates but projected a hike later in 2026 -- a hawkish dot plot. The dollar extended gains, DXY to a two-month high near 100.6. EUR/GBP/AUD all falling, confirming broad USD strength. CAD leg: the Canadian dollar at a 7-month low (newsfeed: "Canadian Dollar Hits 7-Month Low"). Crude ticked up to 74.46 but stays low after the war premium unwound -- pressure on CAD. The pipeline showed you the wrong numbers. Fed pipeline: "Hold 2026, hike Apr 2027." Actual: hold + projected hike later 2026 (hawkish, done). Pipeline CPI US 2.4%. Actual 4.2%, real yield 0.263%. D1 structure: a bullish Elliott impulse. (1) ~1.38, (2) ~1.347, (3) now ~1.414. Price at 1.4115, just below the 1.41388 resistance. The chart expects a wave (4) pullback to the fib region 1.39 (0.382) / 1.385 (0.5) / 1.378 (0.618), pivot 1.39660. Then wave (5) up to 1.44473 → 1.45400. Three scenarios: → Wave (4) to 1.39-1.385 then wave (5) up to 1.44473. Probability: 40% → Direct break above 1.41388 toward 1.44473, shallow pullback. Probability: 25% → Deeper wave (4) to 1.378 then resume up. Probability: 20% Invalidation: daily close below 1.347 (early warning: a break of 1.378). The tell: the wave (4) pullback. A hold above 1.378 with the dollar firm keeps the path to 1.45 alive. Position around the 1.39-1.385 fib region rather than chasing at the top. Conviction: Medium-High Bull. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 18, 2026